Málaga host Espanyol at Estadio La Rosaleda on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time, and it is a meeting of two sides who are going the wrong way. Málaga are 20th of 20 in La Liga with 3 points from 7 games and have yet to win. Espanyol sit 15th with 7 points, but they arrive on a two-game losing run.
The tension is simple. Málaga cannot score, and Espanyol cannot stop conceding the kind of games that go end to end. Our model sees a very even contest and rates the draw as a live outcome, which is not what you expect from a bottom-placed side at home.
Málaga have scored 3 goals all season and conceded 12. Their goals record is the fewest in the division per game, and they have the fewest shots on target too, at 2 a game. The recent run, newest first, is a 1-0 loss at Getafe, a 3-1 home defeat to Villarreal, a 1-1 draw at Celta, a goalless draw with Levante and a 4-0 loss at Real Madrid. Two defeats on the bounce, then, and just two goals in those five.
Espanyol are the more watchable side. They average 1.43 goals a game, the 9th most in the league, and their goals numbers come with plenty at the other end, so both teams have scored in 71% of their games, the 5th highest rate. Their latest results are a 3-1 home loss to Elche, a 2-1 defeat at Rayo, a 2-0 win at Osasuna, a 1-1 draw with Sevilla and a 2-1 loss at Sociedad.
One discipline note worth having: Espanyol commit the most fouls in the division at 17.29 a game and pick up the 2nd most cards at 3 a game. Málaga are no angels either, with the 6th most cards at 2.57. Away from home, though, Espanyol win the fewest corners in La Liga, 2.14 a game, so do not expect them to pile up set pieces.
Málaga possible starting lineup:
Herrero; Puga, Galilea, Recio, Garrido; Pablo Martínez, Lorenzo; Larrubia, Muñoz, Chupe
Espanyol possible starting lineup:
Iori; El Hilali, Riedel, Taillandier, Hartman; Moscardo, Expósito, Lozano; Zaragoza, Roberto Fernández
Our headline name is Roberto Fernández. The Espanyol striker has had 2 or more shots in 7 straight games, averaging 2.3, and that run ranks 3rd in La Liga. Ladbrokes go 1.40 on 2+ shots, and in the bet builder he has hit that line in 80% of his recent games. His team-mate Edu Expósito has had at least one shot in 7 in a row, also at 2.3 a game.
For Málaga, David Larrubia has made at least one tackle in each of 7 straight games, averaging 2.9. He also shows up as our biggest foul angle: the model ranks him 5th likeliest in the league for 2+ fouls but the price ranks him 17th, at 3.75. That is the model liking him, not the form book confirming it, so it is a long shot. Carlos Puga is the steadier choice, with a fouls streak of 6 and 3 tackles a game across his current run.
On the cards side, Clemens Riedel has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games and the model ranks him the likeliest in the division to do it again. At 1.29 the market has him about right, so the edge is small.
The market is close to the model on the result, if a little more generous to the away side. Málaga are 2.80 at best, Espanyol 2.70, and the draw 3.25. We make the draw closer to 29% than the 31% the price implies, and the home side a shade likelier than the market does.
| Market | Best price | Implied | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga win | 2.80 | 36% | 39% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 31% | 29% |
| Espanyol win | 2.70 | 37% | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 56% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 48% | 46% |
The one gap worth a look is Espanyol: the price says 37%, our model says 33%, so the away win looks a touch short rather than a bargain. Both teams to score is the same story, with the model slightly cooler than the 56% the odds suggest, even though Espanyol's matches regularly produce goals at both ends and Málaga's numbers say the home side may not deliver their half.
Our model projects 1.33 goals for Málaga and 1.20 for Espanyol. Its most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 to the home side at 10% and 0-0 at 9%, so a draw is a real possibility and not just a footnote. Our prediction is a narrow one: Málaga 1-1 Espanyol, with a slight lean to the hosts if the game is decided.