Rayo Vallecano welcome Athletic Club to Estadio de Vallecas on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 13:00 UK. Rayo have scored plenty and conceded plenty, while Athletic have built their season on keeping the back door shut. Our model has it finishing level.
Rayo are 12th on 8 points from seven games, and Athletic sit 10th on the same total from six. The gap between the two is in the goals column: Rayo have a goal difference of minus 5, Athletic a plus 1.
Rayo Vallecano have scored 11 and let in 16, and their games have been open ones. They have scored 1.57 goals per game, the 5th most in La Liga, but they concede 2.29, the 3rd most. Both teams have scored in every one of their games, the highest rate in the division.
Their last five brought two wins, a draw and two defeats. They lost 5-2 at Barcelona on the opening weekend, beat Racing 3-2 at home, and were then beaten 4-1 by Real Madrid. They bounced back with a 2-1 win over Espanyol and came away from Osasuna with a 1-1 draw. They also test defenders, with 4.57 shots on target a game, the 9th most.
Athletic Club are the opposite type. They have conceded only six in six games, 1.00 per game, the 3rd fewest in the league, and have kept a clean sheet in half of their matches, the 2nd highest rate. Their last five read a 2-0 defeat at Barcelona, a 2-0 win at Celta, a 3-0 home win over Atlético, a 1-1 draw with Elche and a goalless draw with Alaves.
Goals are harder to come by for them. Athletic average 1.17 per game, the 6th fewest, and both teams have scored in only a third of their matches, the 3rd lowest rate. They do win corners though, 6.17 a game, the 5th most.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Audero; Rațiu, Lejeune, Sadick, Pedrosa; Ciss, Unai López; Palazón, Álvaro García, De Frutos; Camello
Athletic Club possible starting lineup:
Unai Simón; Areso, Yeray, Laporte, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Gerenabarrena; Berenguer, Navarro, Canales; Iñaki Williams
Sergio Camello is Rayo's most reliable threat, with two or more shots in six straight games and 3.2 a game. He is 1.30 at bet365 to make it seven.
Unai López has made at least one tackle in all seven of Rayo's games this season, averaging 2.1, and is 1.17 at bet365 to carry that on.
Florian Lejeune has had a shot in each of his last five, with 11 in total, and is 1.25 at bet365 for another.
Oihan Sancet is Athletic's form man, with two or more shots in six straight games at 2.8 a game, priced at 1.36 at bet365.
Iñaki Williams has had two or more shots in four in a row, averaging 2.8, and is 1.40 at bet365.
The bookmakers have this almost level, with Athletic a shade ahead at 2.60 against 2.70 for Rayo. Our model leans the other way, giving Rayo a 37% chance of winning against 35% for Athletic and 28% for a draw. Both teams to score is 1.73 at midnite, and over 2.5 goals is 1.91 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano win | 2.70 (bet365) | 37% |
| Draw | 3.40 (bet365) | 28% |
| Athletic Club win | 2.60 (bet365) | 35% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (midnite) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 50% |
We make 1.35 goals for Rayo against 1.31 for Athletic, and 1-1 is the likeliest score at 13%, though we make Rayo slightly more likely to win. A draw is firmly in play. Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club.
With the result this tight, the interest is in the player markets. Camello's shot run and Lejeune's five straight games with a shot give Rayo two clear shooting angles, while Sancet and Iñaki Williams lead the Athletic list. Athletic's streaks across La Liga are the more selective, with their goals harder to find than Rayo's.