Villarreal host Elche at the Estadio de la Cerámica on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 15:15 UK time. The hosts arrive 11th in La Liga after a midweek Champions League win, while Elche sit 18th and are still hunting a second league victory of the season. Goals look likely: both sides have been involved in plenty of them.
Villarreal are 11th on 8 points from 8 league games, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. Their last outing was a 3-1 win over Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday, which came three days after a 1-0 loss at Real Madrid. Before that they beat Levante 3-1 at home and Málaga 3-1 away, so they have scored three in three of their last five games.
The attack is the strength. Villarreal average 1.63 goals a game, the 5th most in the division, and put 6.25 shots on target per game, also the 5th most. They are not tight at the back: they have not kept a clean sheet this season, which is the 3rd lowest rate, and both teams have scored in 75% of their games, the 3rd highest.
Elche are 18th on 6 points, with 1 win, 3 draws and 4 defeats, and a goal difference of minus 6 (11 scored, 17 conceded). They concede 2.13 a game, the 4th most. Their latest result was a 0-0 draw with Celta on Sunday, and before that came a 3-1 win at Espanyol and a 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid. They give away a lot of fouls too, 14.25 a game, the 3rd most.
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Gulácsi; Freeman, Navarro, Foyth, Veiga, Cardona; Comesaña, Gueye; Moleiro, Ayoze Pérez, Akhomach
Elche possible starting lineup:
Dituro; Sánchez, Chust, Morcillo, Revivo; Aguado, Villar; Valera, Lemar, Morente; Niño
Georges Mikautadze has had a shot in eight straight league games, averaging 2.6 a game, and that run is the 3rd longest in the division. He is 1.02 at bet365 to make it nine.
Alberto Moleiro has had two or more shots in each of his last five games and averages 2.4 a game. Two-plus shots is 1.40 at bet365.
Santi Comesaña has committed a foul in seven games running and averages 1.9. A foul is 1.20 at bet365.
For Elche, Thomas Lemar has been penalised for at least one foul in five straight appearances, 1.20 at bet365, and Buba Sangaré has made a tackle in seven consecutive games at 1.06.
We back Villarreal to win, and the bookmakers agree: the hosts are 1.45 at bet365. Elche are 6.25 at midnite and the draw is 5.00 at bet365. Our model gives Villarreal a 62% chance of victory, with a 21% draw and a 16% Elche win. The interest is in the player markets and the goals.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 1.45 (bet365) | 62% |
| Draw | 5.00 (bet365) | 21% |
| Elche win | 6.25 (midnite) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 61% |
We project Villarreal for 2.15 goals and Elche for 1.02, and we predict a 2-1 home win. A 1-1 draw is just as likely on the scoreline list, so a draw is in play, but the hosts are clearly the likelier winners. A four-leg player combination of Moleiro 2+ shots, Lemar 1+ fouls, Comesaña 1+ fouls and Tete Morente 1+ shots pays 2.60 at bet365.
Referee Víctor García Verdura has averaged 2.75 yellow cards in his four games this season.