Wolverhampton Wanderers host Portsmouth at Molineux Stadium on Tuesday 20 October, with kick-off at 19:45 UK. Wolves sit 9th in the Championship on 17 points from 10 games, four places and three points ahead of Portsmouth in 13th. Both sides come into the game on the back of a win.
Wolves have won five of their ten, scored 18 and conceded 15. Portsmouth have taken 14 points, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Wolves have the stronger attack, Portsmouth the tighter defence.
Wolves are coming off a 2-1 win at Burnley on Friday, which followed a 3-1 home defeat to Bolton and a 1-0 loss at M'Boro. Before that came a 1-0 home win over WBA.
The attacking numbers are healthy. Wolves average 1.8 goals a game, the 5th most in the division, and they win the 9th most shots on target at 4.5 a game. Corners are a strength too: 6.5 per game is the 2nd most in the Championship. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games, the 8th highest rate, and they have also been the 5th fewest carded at 1.4 cards a game.
Portsmouth go into the trip to Molineux on a two-game winning run, having won 1-0 at Norwich on Saturday and 3-2 at home to Sheff Utd in midweek. That followed a 1-0 defeat at S'oton, a 2-2 draw with Blackburn and a goalless draw at Charlton.
Portsmouth are harder to score against than their position suggests. They concede 1.3 a game, the 8th fewest, and have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches, the 7th highest rate. At the other end they score 1.3 a game, the 7th fewest, and only half their matches have seen both teams score, the 4th lowest rate. They also collect plenty of corners, 6.4 a game being the 3rd most.
Wolverhampton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
José Sá; Tchatchoua, Toti, Djiga, Konan; André, Munetsi; Rafiki Saïd, Fer López, Bellegarde; Neave
Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Schmid; Swanson, Dia, Poole, Meghoma; Pack, Mohamed; Kamara, Segecic, Kavuma-McQueen; Milovanović
Adrian Segecic has had two or more shots in five straight games and averages 2.6 a game. The two-shot market is 1.91 at bet365.
Marko Milovanović has had a shot in six straight games, averaging 1.7, and 1+ shots is 1.13 at bet365. Zak Swanson has had a shot in four in a row and committed a foul in four in a row as well, with fouls at 1.44 at Midnite.
For Wolves, Fer López has had two or more shots in four straight, averaging 2.3, and that is 1.35 at Ladbrokes. André has made a tackle in eight straight games and averages 3.3 a game, while Jean-Ricner Bellegarde has had a shot in each of his last four, 1.1 at bet365.
We back Wolves to win, with the home side 1.61 at Coral. The draw is 4.2 at Midnite and Portsmouth are 5.25 at bet365. Our model gives Wolves a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Portsmouth 16%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves to win | 1.61 (Coral) | 59% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Midnite) | 25% |
| Portsmouth to win | 5.25 (bet365) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 47% |
We predict a 1-0 Wolves win, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, with 2-0 and 1-1 both close behind. A draw is in play. We project Wolves to score 1.75 goals and Portsmouth 0.81, and we give Wolves a 44% chance of a clean sheet.
The player markets offer the most interest. Segecic's run of shots and Fer López's run of two-shot games both sit alongside our projection of 15.4 shots for Wolves and 9.3 for Portsmouth, with Wolves on 5.2 shots on target to Portsmouth's 3.05.