Derby vs Wrexham Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Derby County and Wrexham meet at Pride Park Stadium on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 3pm UK. Derby are 22nd in the Championship with five points from eight games, while Wrexham sit 14th on ten, and a home side struggling for goals faces a visitor who have drawn four of their eight.

The model barely separates them. Derby County are given a 37% chance of winning, Wrexham 34% and the draw 29%, so this is a game where one goal could settle it either way.

How the teams arrive

Derby have taken one win from eight, and have scored 7 goals and conceded 14. They average 0.88 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the division, and they ship 1.75 a game, the 6th most. Their last five tell the story of a side that has found points hard to come by: a 2-0 win at Portsmouth on 1 September, then a 3-0 defeat at West Ham, a 1-0 home loss to WBA, a 2-1 home loss to Birmingham and a 1-1 draw at Burnley last time out.

They do win the physical side of the argument. Derby average 6.38 corners, the 5th most in the league, and 12.88 fouls, the 3rd most, so there is plenty of contact in their home games. Their fouls record is among the highest around.

Wrexham have a more even look to them: two wins, four draws and two defeats, with 9 scored and 12 conceded. They have kept a clean sheet in 25% of games, the 7th highest rate in the division, which sits oddly beside a 6-0 defeat at West Ham on 11 September. Around that heavy loss they have beaten Millwall 3-0 away, drawn 0-0 at Swansea and 1-1 with Burnley, and most recently beaten Southampton 2-1 at home.

The visitors are not a creative force. They produce 3.38 shots on target a game, the 5th fewest, and collect cards sparingly at 1.13 a game, the 4th fewest.

Predicted lineups

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Vickers; Ward, Langås; Ozoh, Mowatt, Fuseini; Clark, Morris

Wrexham possible starting lineup:
Patterson; Vyner, Hyam, Doyle, Ekomié; Kaboré, Whiteman, James; O'Hare, Windass; Moore

Players to watch

Callum O'Hare has had at least one shot in six straight games for Wrexham, averaging 1.8 a game, and is 1.13 at Ladbrokes to make it seven. His team-mate Josh Windass has a run of four straight games with a shot and is 1.06 on the same market at Ladbrokes.

For Derby, Sammie Szmodics has had three or more shots in three consecutive games and averages 4.3 across his seven appearances. He is 2.10 at Ladbrokes to go again, the most eye-catching shooting number in the home side.

Mohammed Fuseini has had a shot in three straight games and a shot on target in four of his last five, and he is 1.44 at bet365 to test the keeper once more. Carlton Morris has had two or more shots in four of his last five, 1.33 at bet365.

Defensively, David Ozoh has made a tackle in four straight games for Derby at 2.8 a game, while Wrexham's Jacques Ekomié has done so in six in a row.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

The bookmakers have Wrexham slightly shorter than Derby, with Wrexham 2.60 at Ladbrokes, Derby 2.70 at bet365 and the draw 3.40 at Coral. We lean the other way, with Derby County fractionally ahead at 37%.

We predict 1-1, which is also the likeliest single scoreline at 14%, so a draw is in play, though we make Derby County slightly more likely to win. Both sides are projected to score around 1.2 goals, and both teams scoring is a 51% shot.

For player angles, Derby's front men carry the recent form. Fuseini and Morris both reach their lines in four of their last five, while Wrexham's Whiteman has drawn a foul-committed line in four of his last five, 1.53 at Midnite. The four of them together make up our bet builder at 4.11.