Updated 9 October 2026.
Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers meet at the Riverside Stadium on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm UK, with the Championship's 3rd and 4th-placed sides separated by a single point. Boro have 15 from eight games, while Wolves have 14 from seven and a game in hand.
Both arrive scoring freely. Middlesbrough's goals average 2 a game, the 4th most in the division, and Wolves are even higher at 2.14, the 3rd most. Where they differ is at the back: Wolves have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their games, the 5th highest rate, while Boro have shipped goals in most of theirs.
Middlesbrough have won four, drawn three and lost one of their eight league games. Their last three Championship outings have been lively: a 4-3 win over Norwich, a 2-2 draw with Millwall and a 2-2 draw at Birmingham. In between came a 3-0 Carabao Cup defeat at Palace, and the 1-0 win at QPR before that is their only clean sheet in the last five.
Both teams to score has landed in 88% of Boro's games, the 3rd highest rate in the league, and 75% of them have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest. They also put plenty on target, averaging 5.13 shots on target a game, the 5th most. At the other end they are disciplined, committing the 5th fewest fouls and collecting the 3rd fewest cards.
Wolves have won four, drawn two and lost one. Their latest result was a 1-0 home win over West Brom, and before that a 1-0 Carabao Cup loss at Everton. The 1-0 win at Sheffield United came a few days earlier, and a 2-2 draw at Birmingham sits ahead of a 4-2 defeat at West Ham.
Wolves win corners, averaging 6.29 a game, the 6th most, and they commit the 4th most fouls at 12.14 a game.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Vitek; Brittain, Ayling, Phillips, Malanda; Morris, Berhalter; Cozier-Duberry, Arfsten, Lankshear; Conway
Wolverhampton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Sá; Trippier, Toti, Djiga, Bueno; André; Gomes, Mané, Armstrong
Aidan Morris is the engine of the Boro midfield. He has made a tackle in seven straight games, averaging 3.1, and he has had a shot in five in a row, averaging 1.8. A shot is 1.36 at bet365, and he is the kind of player who keeps turning up in both columns.
Callum Brittain has the longest run on either side. The right-back has made at least one tackle in all eight games this season, averaging 2.4.
Rodrigo Gomes has had a shot in seven straight games for Wolves, and he is 1.20 at Ladbrokes to make it eight. His team-mate Raúl Jiménez has also had a shot in six in a row, averaging 2.7 a game, while Fer López has had a shot in seven straight at 2.6 a game.
In midfield, André has made a tackle in five straight games, averaging 4, and also committed a foul in each of those five, at 1.18 with Midnite to do so again.
Our model backs Middlesbrough, giving them a 41% chance of winning at home, with Boro 2.25 at Ladbrokes. Wolves are 2.90 at Midnite and the draw is 3.75 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough to win | 2.25 (Ladbrokes) | 41% |
| Draw | 3.75 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Wolves to win | 2.90 (Midnite) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 52% |
We expect 1.48 goals from Boro and 1.29 from Wolves. The prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Middlesbrough slightly more likely to win the game than Wolves.
Beyond the result, the interest is on the player markets. Morris has registered a shot in all five of his recent games, with a pair of two-shot outings among them, and a bet builder of Morris and Gomes each having a shot plus a foul from Mateus Mané comes out at 1.79. For something longer, our model ranks Adilson Malanda well above where the market ranks him for a shot on target, at 4.33.
Kick-off is at 3pm UK on Saturday 10 October 2026 at the Riverside Stadium.
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Middlesbrough slightly more likely to win than Wolves.
Middlesbrough. Our model gives them a 41% chance of winning, against 32% for Wolves and 27% for a draw, and they are 2.25 at Ladbrokes.
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%, with 1.53 available at bet365. Both teams have scored in 88% of Middlesbrough's games this season.
Callum Brittain has made a tackle in all eight Boro games, and Aidan Morris has had a shot in five in a row. For Wolves, Rodrigo Gomes has had a shot in seven straight and Raúl Jiménez in six.
Middlesbrough are 3rd with 15 points from eight games, and Wolves are 4th with 14 points from seven.
Middlesbrough: Vitek; Brittain, Ayling, Phillips, Malanda; Morris, Berhalter; Cozier-Duberry, Arfsten, Lankshear; Conway. Wolves: Sá; Trippier, Toti, Djiga, Bueno; André; Gomes, Mané, Armstrong.