Sheffield United vs Lincoln City Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Sheffield United and Lincoln City meet at Bramall Lane on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm UK, with the home side short of results and the visitors built on a back line that rarely concedes. Sheffield United are 18th in the Championship table on 9 points from 8 games. Lincoln City sit 12th on 11 points, and they have kept a clean sheet in half of their league matches, the highest rate in the division.

Both clubs come into the game after a defeat on 19 September, Sheffield United at Stoke and Lincoln at home to Swansea. One side needs to stop a slide, the other wants to show that a good defensive base can carry it up the table. Our model backs the home side, and a draw is firmly in play.

How the teams arrive

Sheffield United have won two, drawn three and lost three, scoring 9 and conceding 11. The recent run is the worry: they have lost four of their last five in all competitions. Stoke 2-1 Sheff Utd was the latest, and it followed a 1-0 Carabao Cup loss at Fleetwood and a 0-1 home defeat to Wolves. The one win in that stretch was 2-1 at Blackburn, before a 3-1 home loss to Norwich on 5 September.

The numbers behind that run are not flattering at the attacking end. Sheffield United average 3.13 shots on target a game, the 4th fewest in the league, and their 2.88 corners a game is the fewest of any side. They do defend reasonably, with the 8th fewest goals against and clean sheets in a quarter of their games.

Lincoln have won three, drawn two and lost three, scoring 7 and conceding 8. They have conceded just 1 goal a game, the 3rd fewest, and kept clean sheets in half their matches. Their last five include two away wins by the same scoreline, 1-0 at Preston and 1-0 at Bristol City, which came before the 1-2 home defeat to Swansea. Before that, a 4-0 Carabao Cup loss at Bournemouth was the only heavy result.

Goals are the problem for Lincoln. They average 0.88 a game, the 4th fewest, and their 3.00 shots on target a game is the 2nd fewest. They also pick up fouls and cards: 13.38 fouls a game is the 2nd most, and 2.50 cards a game is the 4th most.

Predicted lineups

Sheffield United possible starting lineup:
Cooper; Arblaster, Tanganga, Choudhury, Kitching; Brereton Díaz, Peck, Bamford

Lincoln City possible starting lineup:
Wickens; Elerewe, Bradley, Towler, Coubiș, Reach; McGrandles, Bayliss, Hackett; House, Draper

Players to watch

Sydie Peck is the clearest pick on the home side. He has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 1.7 a game, and that run is priced at 1.17 with midnite. He has also drawn a foul in four of his last five and is 1.30 for a foul at the same book.

Centre-back Liam Kitching has committed a foul in each of his last five games and has made a tackle in each of his last four. A foul from him is 1.40 with midnite. Hamza Choudhury is the tackler in midfield, with a tackle in five straight games at 2.8 a game.

For Lincoln, Freddie Draper has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 1.8, and is 1.09 with Ladbrokes to make it six. Adam Reach has made a tackle in six consecutive games.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back Sheffield United to win at 2.15 with Coral, and the model makes the home side the most likely result at 44%. A draw is in play too: the best price is 3.40 with bet365, and the draw is the top-scoring line in our projections, which have 1-1 as the likeliest score.

We predict Sheffield United 1-1 Lincoln City as the likeliest score, though we make the home side more likely to win, with 1-0 and 2-1 next in line. We project 1.47 goals for Sheffield United and 1.11 for Lincoln City.

Referee Joshua Smith has averaged 5.25 yellow cards a game in his four matches this season, which suits the foul angles on Kitching and Peck. Together those two fouls come in at 1.82 as a bet builder with midnite.