Millwall host Swansea City at The Den on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 7:45pm UK, with the Championship's 1st-placed side visiting the team sitting 8th. Swansea City arrive on 20 points from nine games, five clear of Millwall, and they have conceded just seven goals all season, the fewest in the division.
Millwall are no pushovers at the back either. They share the top spot for clean sheets, keeping one in 44% of their games, which is exactly the rate Swansea City hold. With both sides keeping clean sheets at the same rate, the first goal may matter.
Millwall are 8th with four wins, two draws and three defeats, and 16 goals scored. They finished their last outing with a 1-0 win at Preston on Saturday, which followed a 2-2 draw at home to West Ham and a 2-2 at M'Boro. Before that came a 3-1 defeat at Blackburn.
At home they have been a goals-heavy side despite the clean-sheet record: their goals for rate is the 6th most in the league, and 78% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest in the division. Only 44% of their matches have seen both teams score, the 2nd lowest.
Swansea City have won six, drawn two and lost one. They beat Norwich 2-1 on Saturday, a result that kept them top, and have won their last three league games after a 3-1 defeat at Southampton. They put away three against Burnley and won 2-1 at Lincoln.
The shots on target numbers tell you how they do it: Swansea City average 5.33 a game, the 4th most in the league, while giving up 0.78 goals a game. They are also light on the foul count, committing the 3rd fewest.
Millwall possible starting lineup:
Marschall; Leonard, Cooper, Taylor, Sturge; Metcalfe, Mazou-Sacko, Lisbie; Neghli, Dykes, Arconte
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Vigouroux; Lissah, Cabango, Welsh, Tymon; Franco, Fulton, Widell; Okopu, Vipotnik, Yeo
Jenson Metcalfe has committed a foul in all nine of Millwall's games this season and averages 2.6 a game, while also making a tackle in every one of them. He is 1.15 at midnite for a foul.
Taïryk Arconte has had a shot in eight straight games, averaging 2.1. Lyndon Dykes has done it in six in a row and has a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.50 at bet365 for one on target.
Camiel Neghli has landed a shot on target in five straight games and two or more shots in each of his last four, and is 2.00 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target.
For Swansea City, Melker Widell has had a shot in seven games running and is 1.20 at bet365.
We back Millwall, who we make 43% to win at The Den. The best price on a home win is 2.60 at Ladbrokes, with Swansea City at 2.63 at midnite and the draw 3.50 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.67 at bet365, and over 2.5 goals is 1.91.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 2.60 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Swansea City win | 2.63 (midnite) | 31% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 53% |
We expect 1-1 here, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Millwall more likely to win than Swansea City and a draw is in play. Our model has Millwall on 1.54 goals and Swansea City on 1.27, with a 2-1 home win next at 9%.
On the player markets, our model ranks Millwall's Tristan Crama as likelier to have a shot than the 1.83 price suggests, and Ryan Leonard at 3.75 for a shot on target is another the model likes more than the market does.