Lincoln City host West Ham United at the LNER Stadium on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 8pm UK, and the contest is a neat one: the Championship's highest-scoring side against one of the division's best records for clean sheets. West Ham sit 3rd on 16 points from nine games and have scored 23 goals, more than anyone in the league. Lincoln are 16th on 11 points, and have shut the opposition out in 44% of their matches, level with the best rate in the division.
West Ham arrive off a 1-1 draw with QPR, Lincoln off a 3-0 defeat at Sheffield United, so this is a game with plenty of goals in the numbers on one side and very few on the other.
Lincoln City have won three, drawn two and lost four in the league, with seven goals scored and 11 conceded. Their last five in all competitions were a defeat at Sheffield United on Saturday, a 1-2 home loss to Swansea, then back-to-back 1-0 away wins at Bristol City and Preston, with a 4-0 Carabao Cup loss at Bournemouth before that. At 0.78 goals a game they have the 2nd fewest in the league, and they manage the 3rd fewest shots on target, at 3.00 a game. The flip side is at the back: they concede 1.22 a game, the 5th fewest, and keep clean sheets in 44% of their games.
They also give away plenty of fouls, 13.78 a game, the 2nd most in the league, and collect the 3rd most cards.
West Ham United are 3rd in the Championship table with four wins, four draws and a single defeat. Their 23 goals come at 2.56 a game, the most in the division, and they average 5.78 shots on target, the 2nd most. They have also let in 12, so goals tend to arrive at both ends: both teams have scored in 78% of their league games, the 4th highest rate, and 78% have gone over 2.5 goals.
Recent results show it. They beat Bolton 3-2 away and Wrexham 6-0 at home, lost 3-2 to Fulham in the Carabao Cup, drew 2-2 at Millwall and then drew 1-1 with QPR on Friday. They have drawn two in a row after a strong September.
Lincoln City possible starting lineup:
Wickens; Reach, Towler, Bradley, Elerewe; Bayliss, Jefferies, Konak; Street, Ladefoged, Ogbene
West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Hermansen; Veltman, Kilman, Mavropanos, Morato; Engels, Mukasa; Bowen, Solomon; Piroe, Castellanos
Jarrod Bowen has the best run in the division. Bowen has had three or more shots in nine straight games, averaging 4.2, and a shot on target in eight in a row. The shots-on-target run is 1.40 at Ladbrokes, and he has had at least two shots in each of his last five, including six in one game.
Taty Castellanos has had two or more shots in four straight games, averaging three, and has committed at least one foul in eight in a row. The two-shot run is 1.20 at bet365.
Konstantinos Mavropanos is the centre-back with an eye for goal. Mavropanos has made a tackle in eight straight games and has had a shot in four of his last five, 1.25 at bet365 for one or more.
Adam Reach is Lincoln's most reliable name. Reach has made a tackle in seven straight games, averaging 1.9, and has had a shot in all five of his recent appearances. A tackle is 1.29 at bet365, and his one-plus shots price of 1.62 is one our model likes more than the market does.
Morato is a foul angle from the West Ham back line. The model rates Morato well above where the books price him for at least one foul at 1.73, and two or more at 4.33.
We back West Ham to win, and Ladbrokes make them 1.70 against 5.00 for Lincoln at bet365, with the draw at 4.00. We give West Ham a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Lincoln 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City win | 5.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Draw | 4.00 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| West Ham United win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 80% |
1-1 is the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make West Ham clearly more likely to win, with 1-2 and 0-1 next on the list. Our projection is 1.82 goals for West Ham and 1.09 for Lincoln, and a draw is in play.
For the player markets, Bowen's run of shots is the one to start with, the longest in the division. Referee Andrew Kitchen has averaged 3.67 yellow cards a game across six matches this season.
Statz prediction: Lincoln City 1-1 West Ham United.