Norwich City host Southampton at Carrow Road on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 7:45pm UK, and the goals are the story. Norwich have conceded more per game than anyone in the Championship, while Southampton have scored the 2nd most. Our model has the visitors and the hosts almost level, and 1-1 as the likeliest scoreline.
Norwich sit 18th in the Championship table with 9 points from 9 games: 3 wins, no draws and 6 defeats. They have scored 17 and let in 19. Their last five have been full of goals at both ends: a 2-1 loss at Swansea on 10 October, 3-4 at home to Bolton, a 5-0 Carabao Cup defeat at Man City and a 4-3 defeat at Middlesbrough, either side of a 2-1 home win over Birmingham. That is four defeats in their last five games in all competitions.
The attack is not the problem. Norwich average 1.89 goals a game, the 3rd most in the division, and 5.44 shots on target, also the 3rd most. At the other end they concede 2.11 a game, the most in the league. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of their games, the highest rate going, and both teams have scored in 78%.
Southampton arrive 11th with 13 points from 9: 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, 20 goals scored and 10 conceded. They beat Portsmouth 1-0 on Sunday, a result that follows a 2-1 defeat at Wrexham and a 4-1 home win over Bristol City. Before that came a 3-1 win against Swansea and a 1-1 draw at Lincoln.
They score 2.22 a game, the 2nd most, and concede 1.11, the 4th fewest. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches, the highest rate in the league. They also commit 8.56 fouls a game, the fewest in the division.
Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Kovačević; Stacey, McConville, Córdoba, Yongwa; Wright, Mattsson, Brooks; Schwartau, Makama, Musaba
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Peretz; Bree, Stephens, Schlotterbeck, Manning; Downes, Matsuki, Ward-Prowse; Scienza, Azaz, Larin
Cyle Larin has had a shot in nine straight games, averaging 3.8 a game, and a shot on target in four in a row. He has also committed two or more fouls in five consecutive games, which is the longest such run in the division. He is 2.40 at Ladbrokes to make it six.
Finn Azaz has also shot in all nine of Southampton's games this season, at 2.1 a game, and is 1.14 at bet365 to keep it going. Flynn Downes has made at least one tackle in each of the nine, averaging 2.8.
For Norwich, Ruairi McConville has had a shot in five straight games and is 1.73 at bet365 to add another. The centre-back has had a shot in four of his last five.
We back a goalfest more than a side. Our model makes it nearly even, with Norwich City 38%, the draw 25% and Southampton 37%, while the bookmakers lean slightly to the hosts at 2.40 with bet365. The visitors are 2.70 at Coral and the draw 3.80 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich City win | 2.40 (bet365) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Southampton win | 2.70 (Coral) | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 83% |
We project 1.59 goals for Norwich and 1.56 for Southampton. Over 2.5 goals comes in at 61% and both teams to score at 64%, and the numbers on each side's record support both.
Our prediction is Norwich City 1-1 Southampton. A draw is in play, and 2-1 and 1-2 sit not far behind it. A player-market angle fits the game: Larin has had a shot on target in four straight games and is 1.35 at Ladbrokes, while Ryan Manning has committed a foul in four in a row and is 1.70 at Ladbrokes.