Portsmouth host Sheffield United at Fratton Park on Wednesday 14 October, kicking off at 19:45 UK. The hosts are 19th and coming off a 1-0 loss at Southampton, while Sheffield United arrive in 14th after a 3-0 win over Lincoln. The Blades have kept a clean sheet in a third of their league games, the 4th highest rate in the division, and Pompey have kept one in a quarter, the 6th highest, so the first goal could decide it.
Portsmouth have eight points from eight games, with two wins, two draws and four defeats, and a goal difference of minus 2. Their league position of 19th is hard on a side that has conceded just 1.38 goals a game, the 11th fewest in the division. The recent run has been awkward: a 1-0 defeat at Southampton on Sunday followed a 2-2 draw with Blackburn, and before that a 0-0 at Charlton. In between came a 2-0 win over Cardiff.
At the back they are sound, but at the other end they average 1.13 goals a game, the 8th fewest. Where they do stand out is set pieces: 6.63 corners a game is the 2nd most in the Championship, and their shots on target average 4.38 a game.
Sheffield United have 12 points from nine games, with three wins, three draws and three defeats. They scored twice to win at Blackburn, lost 1-0 to Wolves and Stoke beat them 2-1 before Saturday's 3-0 win over Lincoln. They have also lost 1-0 at Fleetwood in the Carabao Cup. They have conceded 1.22 goals a game, the 5th fewest, and 67% of their league games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 6th highest figure.
They are not a team that wins corners: 2.78 a game is the fewest in the division. They also commit plenty of fouls, 12 a game, the 5th most.
Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Schmid; Swanson, Poole, Dia, Meghoma; Pack, Adams; Kavuma-McQueen, Segecic, Kamara; Bishop
Sheffield United possible starting lineup:
Cooper; Choudhury, Tanganga, Kitching, McCallum; Rothwell, Peck; Chong, Brereton DÃaz, Bamford; Cannon
Sydie Peck has had a shot in each of his last eight games for Sheffield United, averaging 1.8 a game, and he is 1.25 at bet365 to make it nine.
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen matches that run for Portsmouth: a shot in eight straight games, averaging three a game, the most threatening return on either side.
Ebou Adams has made at least one tackle in eight in a row, averaging 2.3.
Liam Kitching has committed a foul in four straight games, averaging 1.5 and is 1.53 at Ladbrokes to make it five.
We back Portsmouth at home, with the hosts at 2.25 at Ladbrokes, the draw 3.40 there and Sheffield United 3.20 at bet365. Our model makes Portsmouth the likeliest winner, but only just.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 2.25 (Ladbrokes) | 41% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | 29% |
| Sheffield United win | 3.20 (bet365) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (Midnite) | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 45% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 14%, though we make Portsmouth the more likely winner of the two sides. A draw is clearly in play. We project 1.36 goals for Portsmouth and 1.12 for Sheffield United.
Peck and Kavuma-McQueen have each had a shot in eight straight games, and on the model's numbers Sheffield United's Harrison Burrows is a name to look at for a shot at 1.67.