Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers meet at Turf Moor on Friday 16 October, kick-off 8pm UK. The hosts are 21st in the Championship table with eight points from ten games, while Wolves sit 10th on 14 from nine. Burnley have drawn five of those ten and have won only once.
Both sides come off a Tuesday night game. Burnley drew 2-2 with Charlton, and Wolves lost 3-1 at home to Bolton.
Burnley are unbeaten in their last three. The win was the best result of their season, a 4-0 victory at Watford on 10 October, and they followed it with a 2-2 draw with Charlton on Tuesday. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Derby and a 3-1 loss at Swansea.
The goals have been flowing at both ends. Burnley have scored 15 and conceded 19 in ten games, both teams have scored in 90% of them, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 70%.
Wolves have had a harder week. They lost 1-0 at Middlesbrough on 10 October and then 1-3 at home to Bolton, so they arrive on two straight league defeats. Before that they had won 1-0 against West Brom and 1-0 away at Sheffield United.
Wolves have won four, drawn two and lost three, scoring 16 goals, 1.78 a game, and conceding 1.56 a game.
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Coudert; Walker, Ekdal, Alleyne, Igor Julio, Pires; Laurent, Hatate; Bruun Larsen, Ramazani, Vardy
Wolverhampton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Sá; Trippier, Djiga, Bueno, Krejci; André, James; Mané, López, Bellegarde; Armstrong
Largie Ramazani has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 2.3, and is 1.11 at bet365 to make it eight. He has had two or more shots in four of his last five.
Lucas Pires has made two or more tackles in five straight games, averaging 2.6, and is 1.62 at bet365 to do it again.
André is the Wolves player to follow. He has committed at least one foul in seven straight games and made a tackle in each of the same seven, averaging 3.6 tackles a game. A foul is 1.28 at Coral.
Fer López has had two or more shots in three straight games and is 1.44 at Ladbrokes to make it four.
Wolves striker Adam Armstrong has fouled in five straight games and is 1.57 at Coral to extend that run.
We back Wolves, who are 2.30 at Ladbrokes. Our model gives them a 42% chance of winning, against 31% for Burnley and 28% for the draw. Burnley are 3.00 at bet365 and the draw is 3.60 at Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 3.00 (bet365) | 31% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Coral) | 28% |
| Wolves win | 2.30 (Ladbrokes) | 42% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 50% |
We expect 1.21 goals from Burnley and 1.45 from Wolves, and 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Wolves more likely to win. A draw is in play, and so is a one-goal Wolves win. Burnley have not kept a clean sheet often, with only 10% of their games ending that way, and our model gives them a 23% chance of shutting Wolves out.
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw. Both teams to score is the market that fits it, at 1.67 at bet365.
On the player markets, Ramazani and Pires sit behind the longest Burnley runs, and André and Armstrong head the Wolves list.