West Bromwich Albion welcome Blackburn Rovers to The Hawthorns on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 3pm UK. It is 6th against 9th in the Championship, separated by two points, and the game sets one of the division's tightest defences against one of its most open attacks.
Albion have conceded just 1.0 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in the league. Blackburn have both teams scoring in 80% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in the Championship, and 80% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest figure anywhere in the division. Those two records pull in opposite directions, though the model leans towards the home side's grip.
West Bromwich Albion are on 17 points from 10 games, with five wins, two draws and three defeats. They come into the weekend on the back of a 2-1 win at Wrexham on Tuesday night, a result that followed a 1-0 home loss to Birmingham last Saturday. Defeat at Wolves by the same scoreline came before that, so Albion have scored just four times in their last five.
They are hard to break down and not especially free-scoring: 1.2 goals a game ranks 8th fewest, and only 40% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the lowest rate in the Championship. They also do not take many shots on target, at 3.5 per game, the 6th fewest.
Blackburn Rovers have 15 points from 10, built on four wins, three draws and three defeats, and they arrive in form. They won 1-0 at Bristol City on Tuesday, a result that made it three wins from their last four, after a 2-1 home win over Cardiff on Saturday. Before that came a 2-2 draw at Portsmouth, and a 3-1 win over Millwall.
Rovers score 1.5 goals a game, the 11th most in the division, and are physical too: 2.5 cards a game is the 2nd most in the league, while their 6.4 corners are the 5th most. At the back, 1.3 goals against a game is the 7th fewest, a decent record.
West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
O'Leary; Pereira, Mepham, Campbell, Styles; Collyer, Molumby, Whitwell; Price, Nzingoula, Stewart
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Tóth; Alebiosu, Atcheson, McLoughlin, Carter, Pickering; Morsy, Montgomery; Afolayan, Cantwell, Morishita
Oladapo Afolayan has had a shot in eight straight games and a shot on target in six in a row, averaging 2.4 shots a game. He is 1.91 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target, and his run of 2+ shots has come in four of the last five.
Callum Styles has made at least one tackle in all 10 of Albion's games, at 3.7 a game, the 2nd best run in the Championship. He has also had a shot in four straight games and is 1.40 at Ladbrokes to make it five.
Isaac Price has had two or more shots in four consecutive games, averaging 2.3 per game, and he has registered a shot on target in each of his last five. He is 1.67 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Kristi Montgomery has matched Styles' consistency on the other side, with a tackle in all 10 Blackburn games at 2.6 a game. Ryan Alebiosu has had a tackle in six straight and is 1.83 for a shot.
We back West Bromwich Albion to win, with Coral offering 1.95 on the home side. Our model gives them a 49% chance, with the draw at 29% and a Blackburn win at 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| West Bromwich Albion to win | 1.95 (Coral) | 49% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 29% |
| Blackburn Rovers to win | 4.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.87 (BoyleSports) | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 (bet365) | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 68% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13.5%, though we make West Bromwich Albion more likely to win the game, and 1-0 is almost level with it at 13.3%. The model expects 1.42 goals from Albion and 0.88 from Blackburn, and gives Albion a 41% chance of a clean sheet.
Referee Adam Herczeg has averaged 4.2 yellow cards a game over five matches this season, which fits two sides who rank 8th and 2nd in the league for cards.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Afolayan's shots, Styles' shots and Price's shots on target all have recent form behind them, and combined those three legs with Harry Pickering to commit a foul come to 3.88 on the bet builder.