Wrexham welcome Preston North End to the Racecourse Ground on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 3pm UK, with the home side 17th in the Championship and the visitors rooted to the bottom. Preston have taken 4 points from 10 games and lost eight of them, and they arrive off a 4-0 defeat at Birmingham on Tuesday.
Wrexham are hardly flying either, but they have drawn five of their ten and lost only three.
Wrexham sit 17th on 11 points from 10 games, with two wins, five draws and three defeats, and a goal difference of minus four (11 scored, 15 conceded). Their last five have been mixed: a 1-1 draw with Burnley, a 6-0 hammering at West Ham, a 2-1 win over Southampton, a 1-1 draw at Derby, and then a 2-1 home defeat to West Brom on Tuesday.
Goals have not come easily: Wrexham average 1.1 per game, the 6th fewest in the division, and their shots on target sit at 3.4 a game, the 5th fewest. Seven in ten of their games have seen both sides score, the 7th highest rate in the league, and they pick up just 1.2 cards a game, the 2nd fewest.
Preston are 24th on 4 points from 10, with one win, one draw and eight defeats, and a goal difference of minus twelve (8 scored, 20 conceded). They have lost eight of their last ten league games. Since the start of September they have lost 2-1 at Watford, 1-0 at home to Lincoln, drawn 2-2 at QPR, lost 1-0 at home to Millwall and then lost 4-0 at Birmingham.
The defensive numbers are stark. Preston concede two a game, the 2nd most in the league, have not kept a clean sheet all season and manage 2.7 shots on target a game, the 2nd fewest. They score just 0.8 per game, the 3rd fewest.
Wrexham possible starting lineup:
Patterson; Kaboré, Hyam, Vyner, Ekomié; Doyle, Whiteman, Dobson; Rathbone, O'Hare; Moore
Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Offiah, Lindsay, Storey, Hughes; Leroy, Thompson, Small; Devine, Burgzorg; Lang
Kieffer Moore has had two or more shots in three straight games and averages three a game. He is 1.17 at bet365 for a shot against a defence that has conceded 20 goals.
Callum Doyle has made a tackle in four straight games, averaging 2.5. He is also a name to look at in the shots markets, with a shot at 1.67 and a shot on target at 4.00.
Ollie Rathbone has made a tackle and committed a foul in each of his last four games, averaging two tackles and 1.5 fouls a game.
For Preston, Alfie Devine has made a tackle in five straight games, averaging 2.4. He has also had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.30 at bet365 for one.
Callum Lang has had a shot in three straight games and averages 2.3 a game; he is 1.12 at Coral for another.
We back Wrexham, who are 1.70 with Ladbrokes to win. The draw is 4.00 and Preston 5.00, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 57% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 25% |
| Preston win | 5.00 (bet365) | 18% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (Midnite) | 75% |
Our model has Wrexham scoring 1.75 goals to Preston's 0.90 and gives the hosts a 41% chance of a clean sheet. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 12%, so a draw is in play, but we make Wrexham clearly the more likely winner, and 1-0 and 2-0 are both close behind.
Our prediction: Wrexham 1-1 Preston North End, though the result most likely to land is a home win.
The interest is in the player markets, with Moore's shots and Doyle's shots and tackles the leading angles for Wrexham, and Devine a likely source of shots for Preston.