Tottenham Hotspur welcome Newcastle United to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday 29 August for the 17:30 UK late kick-off. Spurs opened their Premier League season with a 3-0 defeat at Brentford; Newcastle traded blows with Liverpool in a 2-2 draw.
Both eased any early nerves in the Carabao Cup in midweek, but this is the first real test of where each side stands, and the discipline numbers give this fixture a distinctive shape. Everything live for this one is on the match page.
These are predicted XIs, not confirmed teams. We will update this section when the official team sheets land, usually around an hour before kick-off.
Antonin Kinsky is expected in goal behind a back four of Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke, Marcos Senesi and Andrew Robertson. Sandro Tonali and Lucas Bergvall form the double pivot, with Mikey Moore, Conor Gallagher and Mathys Tel supporting Richarlison.
Lukas Hornicek starts in goal behind Amar Dedic, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman and Lewis Hall. Lewis Miley and S. Steur hold the midfield, with Anthony Elanga, Yoane Wissa and Harvey Barnes behind striker Nick Woltemade.
Spurs bounced back from the 3-0 loss at Brentford with a 5-1 Carabao Cup win over Charlton Athletic on Tuesday. Before the summer they closed last season with a 1-0 win over Everton, a 2-1 defeat at Chelsea and a 1-1 draw with Leeds United, and their last ten matches in all competitions show four wins, three defeats and three draws.
Newcastle's 2-2 with Liverpool on opening weekend was followed by a 3-2 Carabao Cup win over West Bromwich Albion in midweek. The end of last season was patchier: a 2-0 defeat at Fulham, a 3-1 win over West Ham and a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest. After one league round they sit 5th of 20 for goals scored, and their opener saw both teams score and cleared 2.5 goals.
No player here holds an active streak at Statz's tracked thresholds, but the five-game form lines are strong on the Spurs side. Mathys Tel has taken 13 shots across his last five matches at an average of 2.6 per game, clearing two shots in every single one of them. Conor Gallagher has had at least one shot in all five of his last five, and Mikey Moore has hit the target in four of five, seven shots on target in total including a three-on-target game.
The other thread is discipline. Richarlison has committed a foul in four of his last five appearances, and at team level Newcastle lead the Premier League card count after the opening round: 5 cards, 1st of 20, to go with 16 fouls, 2nd of 20. Spurs are no angels either at 14 fouls, 6th of 20.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The cards and fouls angle leads this preview. Newcastle rank 1st of 20 for cards and 2nd for fouls after the opening round, referee Peter Bankes' only game this season averaged 5 yellow cards, 1 red and 21 fouls, and a 17:30 Saturday atmosphere rarely calms anything down. That one-game referee sample deserves caution, but everything in the data points the same way.
The model's favourite prices sit in that market too. Malick Thiaw to commit 1+ foul was 1.57 at the time of writing, with the Statz model ranking him 4th most likely in the match against a market price rank of 18th. Richarlison for 1+ foul was 1.33 at the time of writing, ranked 3rd most likely by the model against 14th by the market. Both are in the predicted XIs.
On goals, both of these teams' openers cleared 2.5 goals and at the time of writing the model projected 1.72 for Spurs and 1.41 for Newcastle. The full board for the round is on the Premier League projections page.
The model gives Spurs the edge at home on goals and shots, but Newcastle's opening draw with Liverpool was the better result and their attack ranks among the round's best. The clearest angles are in the disciplinary markets, where Newcastle's league-leading card count meets a referee whose one game this season averaged 5 yellows and a red. Tel's shot volume is the pick of the player form lines if you prefer the front-foot version of this match.