Nottingham Forest host Coventry City at 17:30 UK on Saturday 19 September. Coventry City are bottom with no points.
They are also the only side in the division yet to score a league goal.
Coventry City have played four Premier League games, scored zero and conceded ten. Both are division worsts. The 5-0 home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion last weekend was the heaviest, and they lost 3-1 to Aston Villa in the cup on Tuesday. Their 0.91 expected goals a game says the chances are not there either.
Nottingham Forest are eleventh on five points and have had a strange start: beaten at home by Leeds United twice inside a week in August, then 2-2 at Liverpool, 0-0 with Tottenham Hotspur and a 2-1 win at Aston Villa last weekend. Four scored, four conceded, from 1.54 expected goals created and 1.21 against - respectable numbers behind unremarkable results.
Nottingham Forest at 8/13 is 59 percent on our numbers against an implied 59, which is no edge at all. The value is in the clean sheet: no goals at both ends is 50 percent at 19/20, 1.9 points clear, and that is our Premier League betting predictions selection.
It is the sensible way to back a side facing the only team in the division yet to find the net. Backing Forest to win at odds on asks you to take a price the model does not rate; backing the clean sheet asks Coventry City to keep doing the one thing they have done all season.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Jarred Gillett, 3.76 cards and 20.21 fouls per game across 34 matches - a mid-table whistle by this weekend's standards.
Coventry City's underlying numbers are on the Premier League xG table, and per-90 player figures on the Premier League player stats page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Coventry City will be relegated on this evidence and the only question here is the margin. Forest have not been convincing enough to make a heavy scoreline the bet, so the clean sheet it is.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Coventry City.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.