Manchester United host Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 5.30pm UK, with the bottom side of the Premier League table arriving to face a team that has been getting plenty of shots away. Spurs are 20th with two points from five games and have scored only twice all season. United are 12th on five points, and they have been sharp in front of goal without being able to turn it into wins.
Bookmakers make Manchester United clear favourites at 1.70 with bet365, and our model agrees. The interest beyond the result is in the player markets, where both sides have midfielders and forwards on long runs.
Manchester United are 12th with one win, two draws and two defeats from five, and eight goals scored and eight conceded. Their last league outing was a 1-1 draw at Fulham, Fulham 1-1 Man Utd, and before that came a 2-3 Carabao Cup loss to Brighton, Man Utd 2-3 Brighton. The Premier League defeat before that was a 1-0 loss to Manchester City, Man Utd 0-1 Man City, while the high point was a 4-0 Champions League win over Sabah, Man Utd 4-0 Sabah. Their shots on target average of 5.6 a game is the 2nd most in the division, and their 7.2 corners a game is also the 2nd most. They have not kept a clean sheet in the league yet, and both teams have scored in 60% of their games, the 4th highest rate.
Tottenham Hotspur sit 20th with no wins, two draws and three defeats, and their 0.4 goals a game is the 2nd fewest in the league. They drew 0-0 with Everton and Nottingham Forest in successive league games, then lost 3-1 at Liverpool in the cup, Liverpool 3-1 Spurs, and 3-2 at home to Aston Villa, Spurs 2-3 Villa. Defensively they have been steadier than the table suggests: 40% clean sheets is the 6th highest rate, and only 20% of their games have seen both teams score, the 3rd lowest. Spurs also lead the division for corners at 7.6 a game and commit the 3rd most fouls, at 13 a game. For the wider picture, the Premier League standings show how tight the bottom half is.
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, MartÃnez, Shaw; Tielemans, Mainoo; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Rashford; Cunha
Tottenham Hotspur possible starting lineup:
Kinský; Gray, Senesi, Adarabioyo, Udogie; Bentancur, Tonali; Savinho, Kudus, Marmoush; Solanke
Bryan Mbeumo has had a shot on target in each of his five games and has had two or more shots in every one of them, averaging 3.8 a game. A shot on target is 1.40 at bet365.
Matheus Cunha has also had at least two shots in five straight games, averaging 2.6, and that market is 1.18 at bet365.
Youri Tielemans has had a shot in all five of his recent games, and he is 1.18 at bet365 to have at least one again.
For Tottenham, Rodrigo Bentancur has made at least one tackle in five straight games at three a game, and he is 1.08 at bet365 to make one again. Jan Paul van Hecke, who is not in our predicted XI, has committed a foul in five in a row and made a tackle in each of those five, and a foul is 1.57 at bet365.
We back Manchester United to win, and bet365 have them at 1.70. The projected scoreline is 2-1 in United's favour, from a model that gives United 1.89 expected goals to 1.07 for Spurs.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 1.70 (bet365) | 56% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 23% |
| Tottenham Hotspur to win | 4.50 (bet365) | 21% |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 (ladbrokes) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, though we make Manchester United the likelier winners at 56%. Spurs have scored just twice in five league games, which keeps the home side's chances of a clean sheet at 34% in our numbers. Referee Stuart Attwell has taken three games this season and has averaged 6 yellow cards a game in them.
On the player side, Tottenham's foul-committers stand out in our numbers. Van Hecke, Bentancur and Lisandro MartÃnez at the other end rank higher in our model for fouls than their prices suggest.