Brentford, 4th and unbeaten after six league games, host Liverpool at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 3pm UK. The hosts are yet to lose in the Premier League this season. Liverpool, 9th, arrive having conceded three at home to Manchester City in their last league outing.
Two sides with six league games played and one defeat between them, and a model that cannot split them by much.
Brentford sit on 10 points from six, with two wins and four draws, and a goal difference of plus six. Their league position of 4th rests on goals: they have the 4th most scored per game and the 6th fewest conceded. Their latest game was a 2-2 draw at Villa on 10 October, and before that came a 3-0 win over Chelsea at home.
Goals have been a feature of their games. Both teams have scored in 67% of Brentford's matches, the 4th highest rate in the division, and the same share have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest. They also foul more than anyone, with the most per game, and collect the 4th most cards.
Liverpool have nine points from six, winning two, drawing three and losing once. The City defeat on 11 October was a 0-3 at home, but they answered three days later with a 6-3 win at LASK Linz in the Champions League. Before that came a 1-0 win at Bournemouth.
Their strength has been at the back: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in half their league games, the 2nd highest rate, and they register the 5th most shots on target per game. They are not short of cards either, with the 3rd most per game. Their league goals have been harder to come by, with the 8th fewest scored per game, and just a third of their matches have seen both teams score.
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Kelleher; Kayode, Schuster, Ajer, Diouf; Janelt, Yarmolyuk; Ouattara, Anthony, Lewis-Potter; Thiago
Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Araujo, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Endo, Mac Allister; Barcola, Wirtz, Muñoz; Koumas
Keane Lewis-Potter has had a shot in six straight games for Brentford and has committed a foul in each of those six, averaging 1.7 of each. He is 1.14 at bet365 for a shot and 1.60 at Ladbrokes for a foul.
Vitaly Janelt has made a tackle in six consecutive games, averaging 3 per match, and is 1.13 at bet365 to make at least one again. Igor Thiago has had a shot in all six, averaging 2.3 per game.
For Liverpool, Florian Wirtz has had at least two shots in six straight games and averages 2.3. That is 1.57 at Ladbrokes. Jérémy Jacquet has made a tackle in each of his six games, averaging 2.3, and is 1.11 at bet365.
We make Brentford slight favourites, though the margin is small and a draw is in play. The bookmakers agree, with Brentford the shortest price at 2.38 with midnite. The player markets are where the interest lies.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 2.38 (midnite) | 39% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 26% |
| Liverpool win | 2.88 (bet365) | 35% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 55% |
Our prediction is Brentford 1-1 Liverpool. That is the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Brentford marginally more likely to win. We project 1.49 goals for Brentford and 1.41 for Liverpool, and a 59% chance that both sides score.
On the player markets, Brentford's Jaidon Anthony is rated by the model as the likeliest in the game to commit a foul and is 1.73 for one or more. Michael Kayode is 3.40 to commit two or more. For Liverpool, Bradley Barcola has had a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.53 at bet365, while VÃctor Muñoz has done so in four of five at 1.57.
Referee John Brooks has averaged 5.25 yellow cards across his four games this season.