Everton host Chelsea at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 12:30 UK. Level on 10 points, the sides sit 5th and 6th, and the contrast between them is stark: Everton have the stingiest defence in the division, while Chelsea have scored more than two goals a game and have not kept a clean sheet all season.
Everton have not lost in the league. They are 5th with two wins and four draws from six, and they have conceded only 5 goals, the fewest in the Premier League at 0.83 a game. They have kept a clean sheet in half their matches, the 2nd highest rate in the division. The latest result was a 2-2 draw at Hull on 11 October, and before that came a 1-0 win over Ipswich and a 0-0 draw at Spurs. Their shots on target sit at 5 a game, the 5th most, and they commit the fewest fouls in the league at 7.33 a game.
Chelsea are 6th with three wins, a draw and two defeats, and their numbers swing both ways. They have scored 15 and conceded 13, with goals for at 2.5 a game, the 3rd most. Both teams have scored in 83% of their games, the highest in the league, and every one of their matches has gone over 2.5 goals. They arrive on the back of a 5-1 win over Bournemouth, but before that came a 3-0 defeat at Brentford and a 2-2 draw with Hull. Their shots on target average of 5.33 is the 2nd most in the league.
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Branthwaite, Keane, Tarkowski; Garner, Armstrong, Dewsbury-Hall; Johnson, Grealish, Barry
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
MartÃnez; Acheampong, Colwill, Lacroix, ChavarrÃa; Caicedo, Henderson; Neto, Palmer, Rogers; João Pedro
Thierno Barry has had 3+ shots in five straight games and averages 4 a game, the longest such run in the league, and he is 2.20 at bet365 to keep it going. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has had a shot in all six games at 3.2 a game and is 1.22 at bet365.
Morgan Rogers has managed 2+ shots in six straight for Chelsea, averaging 2.8, and he is 1.35 at Ladbrokes. He has also had a shot on target in four in a row. Pedro Neto has had a shot in each of six games and is 1.20 at bet365. James Tarkowski has made at least one tackle in all six games, averaging 2.2, and is 1.25 at bet365.
We back Chelsea, who are 2.15 at Ladbrokes to win, and we make them the likeliest result. The draw is 3.80 at bet365 and Everton are 3.25 at BoyleSports.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 3.25 (BoyleSports) | 29% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 25% |
| Chelsea win | 2.15 (Ladbrokes) | 46% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 57% |
We predict 1-1, and a draw is in play, though we make Chelsea more likely to win than Everton. We project 1.68 goals for Chelsea against 1.31 for Everton, and both teams to score comes out at 60%.
On the player markets, the model rates Jarrad Branthwaite likelier to have a shot on target than the 3.40 on offer suggests, and the same goes for Tarkowski at 3.25. Jake O'Brien to commit a foul is 1.83 and Jack Grealish to commit two is 3.40. A four-leg combination of Neto and Dewsbury-Hall to have a shot, Tarkowski to make a tackle and João Pedro to have a shot on target comes to 2.64.