Updated 29 October 2026.
Chelsea host Manchester United at Stamford Bridge on Saturday 31 October, with a 12:30 UK kick-off. In the Premier League table Chelsea are 5th with 13 points from eight games and United are 16th with 7.
Both teams have been leaking goals. Chelsea have scored 17 and conceded 15, United have scored 10 and let in 13, and both sides have seen both teams score in 63% of their games. Our model puts the chance of both teams scoring here at 63% as well, and it makes 1-1 the likeliest single scoreline, though we have Chelsea at 48% to win.
Chelsea come in off a mixed week. They lost 2-0 at home to Spurs on 24 October, then drew 1-1 at Liverpool in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. Before that came a 2-0 win at Everton and a 5-1 win over Bournemouth. They average 5.38 shots on target a game, the 2nd most in the league, and their 2.13 goals a game is the 3rd most. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of their games, the highest rate in the division.
At the back Chelsea concede 1.88 a game, the 4th most, and have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of matches, the 6th lowest rate. They also commit very few fouls, 9.88 a game, the 2nd fewest.
United have lost their last two games, 3-0 at home to Bournemouth on Sunday and, before that, 4-1 at Como in the Champions League on Wednesday 21 October. A 1-1 draw at Leeds on 18 October came before those. Their last five league and European games brought two draws and three defeats, and they have not kept a clean sheet in the league this season. They win 6 corners a game, the 3rd most, and average 5 shots on target, the 4th most, but their 1.25 goals a game is only the 10th most.
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Penders; Acheampong, Fofana, Colwill, Hato; Caicedo, Henderson; Neto, Palmer, Quenda; Welbeck
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Yoro, Heaven; Baleba, Andrey Santos; Amad Diallo, Tielemans, Mount; Mbeumo
Bryan Mbeumo. Mbeumo has had at least one shot on target in eight straight games, averaging 1.4 a game, and two or more shots in eight straight, averaging 3.3. He is 1.65 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target in this one, and 2+ shots is 1.50 at bet365.
Pedro Neto. Neto has had a shot on target in five straight games, averaging 1.6, and is 1.73 at bet365 to do it again. He has also made two or more tackles in four straight games, and 2+ tackles is 2.10 at bet365.
Josh Acheampong. Acheampong has made three or more tackles in each of his last five games, 16 in all. Two or more tackles is 1.73 at bet365.
Ayden Heaven. Heaven has made at least one tackle in each of his last five games, 10 in total, and 1+ tackle is 1.20 at bet365.
Diogo Dalot. Dalot has made a tackle in six straight games and averages two a game over that run.
We back Chelsea, who are 1.83 with bet365 to win at home. Our model gives them a 48% chance, with 24% for the draw and 28% for United.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 1.83 (bet365) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Ladbrokes) | 24% |
| Manchester United win | 4.00 (bet365) | 28% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 62% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, so a draw is in play, though we make Chelsea more likely to win overall. Next behind it is 2-1 to Chelsea at 9%. We project 1.84 goals for Chelsea and 1.37 for United, and both teams to score at 63% fits two defences that have been conceding.
Chelsea vs Manchester United in the 2026/27 Premier League kicks off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea go into the game 5th in the table with 13 points and United are 16th with 7.
We predict 1-1 for Chelsea vs Manchester United in the 2026/27 Premier League, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we give Chelsea the better chance of winning at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Manchester United.
Chelsea are favourites to beat Manchester United in the 2026/27 Premier League on 31 October, and we give them a 48% chance of winning, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Manchester United. We make 1-1 the likeliest single scoreline.
Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance in Chelsea vs Manchester United in the 2026/27 Premier League. Both teams have scored in 63% of Chelsea's league games and 63% of United's this season, the 3rd highest rate in the division for each side.
Bryan Mbeumo is the in-form player for Manchester United against Chelsea in the 2026/27 Premier League, with a shot on target in eight straight games. Chelsea's Pedro Neto has had a shot on target in five straight games and made two or more tackles in four.
Chelsea are 5th in the 2026/27 Premier League with 13 points from eight games (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats) before facing Manchester United on 31 October. United are 16th with 7 points from eight games (1 win, 4 draws, 3 defeats).
For the 12:30 UK kick-off of Chelsea vs Manchester United in the 2026/27 Premier League on 31 October 2026, Chelsea's possible starting lineup is Penders; Acheampong, Fofana, Colwill, Hato; Caicedo, Henderson; Neto, Palmer, Quenda; Welbeck. Manchester United's possible starting lineup is Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Yoro, Heaven; Baleba, Andrey Santos; Amad Diallo, Tielemans, Mount; Mbeumo.