Updated 30 October 2026.
Lecce host Genoa at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 5pm UK, with the two clubs separated by a single place and a single point. Lecce are 14th on 9 points and Genoa 13th on 10. Genoa have beaten Venezia and Juventus in their last two games, while Lecce lost 5-1 at Frosinone on Thursday.
We make Genoa 39% to win, the draw 32% and Lecce 29%. The likeliest single score is 1-1 at 14%, and that is our prediction.
Lecce sit 14th in the Serie A table with 3 wins from 9 and a goal difference of minus 9 (10 scored, 19 conceded). Four of their last five league games have been defeats: a 3-0 loss at AC Milan on 20 September, a 2-1 home defeat to Bologna on 11 October, a 2-0 home loss to Juventus on 25 October and a 5-1 defeat at Frosinone on Thursday. The exception was a 3-0 win at Udinese on 18 October. They concede 2.11 goals a game, the 5th most in the division.
Lecce commit 13.11 fouls a game, the 2nd most in Serie A, and pick up 2 cards a game, the 4th most.
Genoa are on 10 points from 9 games, 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, with 8 scored and 13 conceded. They have won their last two, a 1-0 win over Venezia on 25 October and a 2-0 win over Juventus on 28 October, both at home and both clean sheets. Before that came a 2-0 defeat at Roma on 17 October, a 2-1 home win over Fiorentina on 10 October and a 2-1 loss at Parma on 20 September.
Genoa score 0.89 goals a game, the 4th fewest in Serie A, and their 2.89 shots on target a game is the fewest. They also have the most cards in the league at 2.44 a game. They concede 1.44 a game, the 9th fewest, against 2.11 for Lecce.
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Falcone; Veiga, Ndaba, Dembélé, Gallo; Kaba, Ngom, Maleh; Fatah, Geubbels, N’Dri
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Bijlow; Vásquez, Østigård, Marcandalli; Ellertsson, Frendrup, Filho, Ehizibue; Baldanzi, Vitinha; Osmajic
Leo Østigård has made at least one tackle in all nine Genoa games this season, averaging 1.6, and he is 1.17 at bet365 to keep that run going. Mikael Egill Ellertsson has also tackled in nine straight games, averaging 2.3, and he has had a shot in four of his last five, which is 1.67 at Ladbrokes.
Amar Fatah has had a shot in seven straight games for Lecce, averaging 1.3, and is 1.13 at bet365 for another. Willem Geubbels has had two or more shots in four straight, averaging 2.8, and is 1.53 at bet365 to do it again.
Youssef Maleh and Antonino Gallo have each made two or more tackles in four of their last five games, and two tackles is 1.40 for Maleh and 1.50 for Gallo at bet365. Mohamed Kaba has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.50 at bet365 for another.
We make Genoa the most likely winners at 39%, ahead of the draw on 32% and Lecce on 29%. Genoa are 2.45 at Ladbrokes, with the draw 3.10 at Coral and Lecce 3.40 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce win | 3.40 (bet365) | 29% |
| Draw | 3.10 (Coral) | 32% |
| Genoa win | 2.45 (Ladbrokes) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 (bet365) | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.38 (bet365) | 36% |
We project 0.96 goals for Lecce and 1.16 for Genoa. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 14%, with 0-0 and 0-1 close behind at 13% each, and we predict 1-1, though we make Genoa 39% to win against 29% for Lecce. Lecce keep a clean sheet in 31% of our simulations and Genoa in 38%.
Statz prediction: Lecce 1-1 Genoa.
Lecce vs Genoa in Serie A 2026/27 kicks off at 5pm UK on Sunday 1 November 2026 at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. Lecce are 14th on 9 points and Genoa 13th on 10 points, each after nine games.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Lecce vs Genoa in Serie A 2026/27 on 1 November, the likeliest single score at 14%. We still make Genoa the likelier winners at 39%, with the draw on 32% and Lecce on 29%.
Genoa are the favourites for Lecce vs Genoa in Serie A 2026/27, with a 39% chance of winning in our projection against 29% for Lecce and 32% for the draw. Genoa are 13th on 10 points and have won their last 2 games.
Genoa are 13th in Serie A 2026/27 on 10 points and Lecce 14th on 9 points ahead of their meeting on 1 November, each after nine games. Genoa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, and Lecce have 3 wins and 6 defeats.
Both teams to score in Lecce vs Genoa in Serie A 2026/27 has a 43% chance in our projection. Genoa have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 games, and Lecce have scored 10 goals in nine league games.
Ahead of Lecce vs Genoa in Serie A 2026/27, Leo Østigård and Mikael Egill Ellertsson have each made at least one tackle in all 9 of Genoa's league games this season, and Tommaso Baldanzi has had a shot in 4 straight.
For the 5pm UK kick-off on 1 November 2026, Lecce's possible starting lineup against Genoa in Serie A is Falcone; Veiga, Ndaba, Dembélé, Gallo; Kaba, Ngom, Maleh; Fatah, Geubbels, N’Dri. Genoa's possible starting lineup is Bijlow; Vásquez, Østigård, Marcandalli; Ellertsson, Frendrup, Filho, Ehizibue; Baldanzi, Vitinha; Osmajic.