Scotland host Slovenia at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at Hampden Park, ten days after the two drew 0-0 in Ljubljana.
Scotland broke their duck on Saturday with a 2-0 win in North Macedonia, their first goals of the competition. Before that they had gone five matches with one.
Scotland's window reads 0-0 in Slovenia, 0-3 at home to Switzerland and the 2-0 in Skopje. Two clean sheets from three puts them joint second of 54 for clean sheet rate, and they are seventh of 54 for fouls at 15 a game. None of their matches has had goals at both ends, which is the joint lowest rate in the competition.
Slovenia lost 2-1 in Switzerland on Saturday, beat North Macedonia 2-0 and drew the goalless one with Scotland. Twelfth of 54 for goals conceded at 0.67 a game and forty-second for shots on target at three, so they are built the same way their hosts are. Seventh for cards at three a game. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.42 goals for Scotland and 0.84 for Slovenia, a combined 2.26, the lowest total of Tuesday's Nations League card.
Scotland to win is rated 50.6 per cent against a margin-free implied 52.8, so the favourite is a fraction short of the price. Slovenia at 4.75 carry 22.3 against an implied 20. Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 is projected at 60.6 against 58.1, and both teams to score, No, at 1.67 is 56.8 against 55.7.
Everything leans quietly to the quiet side, which is what two sides with two clean sheets each from three and a goalless first meeting ought to produce.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Both sides foul heavily for this level: Scotland seventh of 54 at 15 a game, Slovenia eighteenth at 12.67, and Slovenia seventh for cards at three. David Brekalo has committed a foul in three straight for the visitors.
For Scotland, Oliver McBurnie and Lewis Ferguson have each fouled in three straight. Ferguson also carries one of the longest tackle runs in the competition.
Scotland are fourteenth of 54 for corners at five a game against Slovenia's 4.67, which is the nearest thing to an attacking edge on the page. Neither side is projected for more than 3.62 shots on target.
Scotland are at home, have just won away for the first time in the window and are a fraction short of their price rather than value at it. Slovenia have the better defensive record of the two by a shade.
The read is a low-scoring Scotland win or a draw, with the under and the foul counts the parts of this card with real weight behind them. The goalless first meeting is the better guide than Saturday's 2-0.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.