Updated 14 November 2026.
North Macedonia host Slovenia at the Toše Proeski Arena on Monday 16 November, with kick-off at 7:45pm UK. The hosts are 4th in their League B group on 0 points after five defeats, with one goal scored and 12 conceded. Slovenia sit 2nd on 8 points and have conceded just three goals in five games. That gap is why we make Slovenia 51% to win this UEFA Nations League tie, with North Macedonia on 21%.
North Macedonia have lost eight of their last ten games in all competitions, with only two draws earlier in that run. In the Nations League they have failed to score in four of five, and the latest was a 2-1 defeat at Scotland on 13 November, their one goal of the campaign coming in that game. Before that came a 3-0 loss at Switzerland and a 2-0 home defeat to Scotland. They average 0.2 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the competition, and manage just 0.6 shots on target, the 2nd fewest.
Slovenia are unbeaten in two, with two wins and two draws from their last five games. Their goalless draw with Switzerland on 13 November followed a 2-1 win at Scotland. They also beat these opponents in September, 2-0 at home. They concede 0.6 goals a game, the 9th fewest, and have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games, the 7th highest rate.
Slovenia also pick up bookings, averaging 3 cards a game, the 5th most. North Macedonia average 2.4, the 20th most.
North Macedonia possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Musliu, Mladenovski, Serafimov, Herrera; Elmas, Bardhi, Doriev; Churlinov, Mitrovski, Atanasov
Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Karnicnik, Bijol, Brekalo, Drkusic; Lovrić, Gnezda Cerin, Janza; Elsnik, Sturm, Sporar
Zan Karnicnik has made at least one tackle in all five of Slovenia's Nations League games, averaging 2.2 a game. His team-mate Adam Gnezda Cerin has the same five-game run, at 1.2 a game, and has also committed a foul in three straight.
In attack, Danijel Sturm has had a shot in four straight games and averages 2.5. Centre-back David Brekalo has made a tackle and committed a foul in each of his last four games, averaging 2.5 tackles and 1.5 fouls.
For the hosts, centre-back Visar Musliu has made a tackle in three straight games and averages 2.7 a game. Ljupche Doriev has also tackled in three in a row.
We back Slovenia, who are 1.60 with Ladbrokes, with our model giving them a 51% chance of winning. North Macedonia are 6.25 at bet365 and the draw is 3.80 at Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| North Macedonia to win | 6.25 (bet365) | 21% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Coral) | 28% |
| Slovenia to win | 1.60 (Ladbrokes) | 51% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 (bet365) | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 (bet365) | 35% |
Our prediction is North Macedonia 0-1 Slovenia, the likeliest single score at 17%. A 1-1 draw comes next at 12%, level with 0-0, and we give Slovenia a 51% chance of winning against 28% for the draw. We project 0.75 goals for North Macedonia and 1.35 for Slovenia, and there is a 26% chance the hosts keep a clean sheet against a 47% chance for the visitors. Our projections have Slovenia taking 10.1 shots to North Macedonia's 7.2, with 3.6 on target to 2.5.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League kicks off at 7:45pm UK on Monday 16 November 2026 at the Toše Proeski Arena. It is a League B fixture, with North Macedonia at home.
We predict North Macedonia 0-1 Slovenia in this 2026/27 UEFA Nations League League B match, the likeliest single score at 17%. A 1-1 draw is also in play at 12%, but we give Slovenia a 51% chance of winning.
Slovenia are favourites for North Macedonia vs Slovenia in the 2026/27 Nations League, with our model giving them a 51% chance of winning against 21% for North Macedonia. Bookmakers have Slovenia at 1.60 with Ladbrokes and the hosts at 6.25 with bet365.
Our model gives both teams to score in this 2026/27 Nations League tie a 39% chance, with bet365 offering 2.20. North Macedonia have scored once in five games and Slovenia have kept a clean sheet in 60% of theirs.
Ahead of North Macedonia vs Slovenia in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, Slovenia are 2nd in their League B group on 8 points from 5 games and North Macedonia are 4th on 0 points. The hosts have lost all five, scoring 1 and conceding 12.
Zan Karnicnik has made at least one tackle in 5 straight Slovenia games in the 2026/27 Nations League, averaging 2.2 a game. Adam Gnezda Cerin has the same 5-game run, averaging 1.2 tackles a game.
For the 2026/27 Nations League game, North Macedonia are expected to line up with Dimitrievski in goal and Elmas, Bardhi and Doriev in midfield. Slovenia are predicted to start Oblak, with Bijol and Brekalo at centre-back.