Czech Republic host England at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 29 September at the Fortuna Arena, in the last round of this Nations League window. England arrive three days after losing 2-3 at home to Spain, and with a set of numbers that do not look like a side priced at 3/10 anywhere.
They have been involved in 26 goals in five matches - an average of 5.2 a game - and have conceded in every one of them.
England's recent run is the most open of any side in this competition: 2-3 against Spain, a 6-4 win in France, 1-2 against Argentina, 2-1 in Norway and 3-2 in Mexico. Five matches, five games with goals at both ends, five games past two and a half. They rank seventh for goals scored at 2.0 a game and fiftieth for goals conceded at 3.0. They have not kept a clean sheet.
Czech Republic have the same two perfect records at both ends and almost none of the quality: 1-2 to Croatia, 0-3 to Mexico, 1-1 with South Africa, 1-2 in Korea Republic and a 3-1 win over Guatemala. One goal a game scored, two conceded, and one win in five. Team sheets are not confirmed.
Here is the tension, and it is the reason this fixture is more interesting than the price suggests. Every fixture-level indicator points at goals - both sides are on 100 per cent for goals at both ends and 100 per cent for over 2.5 - and the model still projects a fairly quiet match: 1.99 goals for England and 0.83 for Czech Republic, a combined 2.82.
It projects both teams to score at only 48.5 per cent against a price of evens, and over 2.5 at 53.4 per cent against 8/13, which is shorter than the model supports. England to win at 3/10 is rated 64.6 per cent, well below what that price implies.
The model is saying something specific: at 3/10 this is a mismatch, and mismatches do not produce 2-1s. That reading has support. Across 363 Nations League matches and 1,501 international friendlies in our database, international football scores the same number of goals as club football and shares them out far less evenly - both teams score in 46.6 per cent of Nations League games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues. A 4-0 and a 2-1 both clear over 2.5; only one of them pays the other line.
Nothing here clears its price by enough to call a bet. Under 2.5 at 11/5 is the only selection the model rates above the market at all, and by a single point.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Halil Umut Meler, averaging 4.33 yellow cards and 25.33 fouls a game across three matches this season - a busy whistle for a fixture with a gap this size.
The player markets are where this match is most legible. Bukayo Saka has had two or more shots in all nineteen of his qualifying matches, averaging 3.8 a game, and is priced at 1.36. Alex Scott has had a shot in all nine of his at 1.25. Away from the attacking lines, Anthony Gordon has made a tackle in four of five and Ezri Konsa committed a foul in four of five.
A side expected to have most of the ball against opponents who have won once in five is the shape of fixture where shot-volume lines on the favourite's forwards hold up better than the goals markets do.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
England should win and the price says so emphatically. The honest addition is that 3/10 is not a price this column would take on a team that has conceded in all five of its last matches and shipped three to Spain at home on Saturday.
The read is a comfortable England win that is less comfortable than it sounds, with the goals markets priced beyond what the numbers support in both directions. The interesting bets are on the shot counts, not the scoreline.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.