Greece host Germany at 19:45 UK on Sunday 4 October at the Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloniki, ten days after winning 1-0 in Germany.
Greece are unbeaten in this window. Germany have not had a match go past two and a half goals in it, which is the thirty-eighth-ranked over-2.5 rate of 54 teams and sits oddly beside their seven corners a game.
Greece won 2-1 in Serbia, won 1-0 in Germany and then drew 2-2 with the Netherlands on Thursday. Seven points from three matches against that company is the story of the group. They score 1.67 a game and concede one, and they are fifty-first of 54 for fouls at eight a game, so this is not a side that gets there by kicking people.
Germany beat Serbia 2-0 on Thursday, having lost at home to Greece and drawn 1-1 in the Netherlands. One goal a game puts them twenty-fourth of 54 and 0.67 conceded puts them seventeenth, so the defending has held while the scoring has not. They lead almost everyone for corners at seven a game, third of 54, and take 5.39 projected shots on target. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.65 goals for Germany and 1.16 for Greece, a combined 2.81, and rates Germany 48.8 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 51.3.
Greece at 4.10 are rated 26.8 per cent against an implied 23.1, a gap of nearly four points and the clearest disagreement on this fixture. The home side has already won the away leg, and the price has moved less than that result suggests it might.
On the totals, over 2.5 goals is projected at 53.4 against an implied 55.3 and both teams to score, No, at 44.5 against 42.4. Both lean a little towards the quieter side, which matches Germany's record of three matches and no over-2.5 among them, and matches the competition's base rate: both teams score in 46.6 per cent of Nations League games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The Greek fouls lines are the most repeated numbers on the page, which is a curiosity given the team ranks fifty-first of 54 for fouls. Konstantinos Karetsas has committed a foul in all five of his last five and in three straight, eight in total at 1.6 a game, priced 1.30. Christos Zafeiris has fouled in three straight at 1.18, and Vangelis Pavlidis in four of his last five at 1.40. A low team foul count with individual streaks that long means the fouling is concentrated rather than absent.
At the back, Konstantinos Mavropanos has had a shot in all five of his last five, seven in total at 1.4 a game, priced 1.44. Germany's seven corners a game is the reason a centre half is on that list.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Germany are favourites and the model has them slightly short of the price. Greece have beaten them once already this window, have taken seven points from matches against Germany, the Netherlands and Serbia, and are available at 4.10 with the model four points above it.
The read is a close game that Germany should edge on the balance of play, in which the home price is the one carrying any margin and the goals markets lean under. Germany's corner count is the team line with the most behind it.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.