Greece host Germany at Stadio Toumbas, ThessalonÃki on 4 October 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Greece's last five results: W D W W D (3 wins and 2 draws). Germany's last five: L D D L W (1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses). In their last 2 meetings, Greece have won 1, Germany 1, with 0 draws.
Greece vs Germany kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 4 October 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Stadio Toumbas, ThessalonÃki.
Greece vs Germany is being played at Stadio Toumbas in ThessalonÃki, the home ground of Greece.
Greece's last five results read W D W W D (oldest to newest): 3 wins and 2 draws.
Germany's last five results read L D D L W (oldest to newest): 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses.
Across the last 2 meetings Greece have won 1, Germany have won 1 and 0 were drawn. The most recent was Germany 0-1 Greece on 27 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Christos Tzolis leads Greece with 10 shots on target across their last 10 games.
Deniz Undav leads Germany with 6 goals across their last 10 games.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Greece and Germany are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Germany the favourite with a 49% chance of winning, against 27% for Greece and 24% for the draw. Projected goals are Greece 1.2 - 1.7 Germany.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw, at 12%. Both teams to score is 55% likely and over 2.5 goals 53%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Germany vs Greece | 0-1 |
| 7 Jun 2024 | Friendly International | Germany vs Greece | 2-1 |
Statz's projection model expects Greece 1.2 - 1.7 Germany in goals. It gives Greece a 27% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Germany 49%. Both teams to score is 55% likely, over 1.5 goals 77% and over 2.5 goals 53%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%), 1-0 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 12% |
| 0-1 | Germany win | 10% |
| 1-2 | Germany win | 10% |
| 0-2 | Germany win | 8% |
| 1-0 | Greece win | 7% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Greece vs Germany, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Greece | Fouls committed | Germany | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Retsos | 11 | A. Pavlovic | 16 |
| 2 | C. Zafeiris | 10 | J. Tah | 13 |
| 3 | D. Kourbelis | 9 | J. Musiala | 9 |
| 4 | K. Koulierakis | 8 | N. Schlotterbeck | 8 |
| 5 | G. Masouras | 8 | F. Nmecha | 8 |
| # | Greece | Shots | Germany | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C. Tzolis | 28 | F. Wirtz | 22 |
| 2 | V. Pavlidis | 14 | K. Havertz | 15 |
| 3 | K. Karetsas | 10 | F. Nmecha | 14 |
| 4 | C. Zafeiris | 8 | D. Undav | 12 |
| 5 | K. Mavropanos | 7 | L. Sané | 11 |
| # | Greece | Shots on target | Germany | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C. Tzolis | 10 | K. Havertz | 9 |
| 2 | V. Pavlidis | 5 | D. Undav | 9 |
| 3 | K. Karetsas | 4 | F. Wirtz | 6 |
| 4 | A. Tetteh | 3 | F. Nmecha | 6 |
| 5 | K. Tsimikas | 3 | J. Musiala | 4 |
| # | Greece | Goals | Germany | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C. Tzolis | 3 | D. Undav | 6 |
| 2 | G. Masouras | 2 | K. Havertz | 5 |
| 3 | A. Bakasetas | 1 | L. Sané | 2 |
| 4 | K. Karetsas | 1 | J. Musiala | 2 |
| 5 | F. Ioannidis | 1 | F. Nmecha | 2 |
| # | Greece | Yellow cards | Germany | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Retsos | 3 | K. Havertz | 1 |
| 2 | L. Rota | 2 | J. Musiala | 1 |
| 3 | C. Zafeiris | 2 | A. Pavlovic | 1 |
| 4 | F. Ioannidis | 1 | N. Schlotterbeck | 1 |
| 5 | A. Bakasetas | 1 | Y. Bisseck | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Greece vs Germany: Konstantinos Mavropanos 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.44); Konstantinos Karetsas 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.30); Vangelis Pavlidis 1+ fouls (80% hit rate at 1.40). Combined odds 2.62 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.7 | 17 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1 | 18 of 54 |
| Shots | 14 | 25 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 4.7 | 20 of 54 |
| Fouls | 8 | 51 of 54 |
| Tackles | 18 | 7 of 54 |
| Passes | 355.3 | 46 of 54 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 19 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1 | 30 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0.7 | 17 of 54 |
| Shots | 19.3 | 3 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 17 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12.7 | 23 of 54 |
| Tackles | 14.7 | 21 of 54 |
| Passes | 613 | 5 of 54 |
| Corners | 7 | 3 of 54 |