Updated 11 November 2026.
Italy host France at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 7:45pm UK, in the UEFA Nations League. The two drew 1-1 in Paris on 2 October. France are 1st on 10 points and Italy 2nd on 7, with both sides having played four.
France have conceded twice all campaign, while Italy have scored eight, including the single goal they managed in Paris.
France lead their League A group on 10 points from four games: three wins, one draw, no defeats, seven scored and two against. They have kept a clean sheet in half their games, the 8th highest rate, and their goals against average of 0.5 is the 6th fewest. They won 1-0 away in Turkey and 1-0 away in Belgium, drew 1-1 with Italy, and then won 4-1 at home to Belgium on 5 October.
Italy are 2nd on 7 points, with two wins, a draw and a loss, eight scored and five conceded. Their defeat was a 0-2 home loss to Belgium on 25 September, and they have answered it with a 4-1 win in Turkey, the 1-1 draw in Paris and a 3-1 home win over Turkey on 5 October. Both teams have scored in 75% of their games, the 7th highest rate.
France average 6.75 shots on target, the 3rd most, against Italy's 5.5, which is the 11th most. France also win 6 corners a game, the 8th most, while Italy average 3.25, the 17th fewest.
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Kayode, Romano, Bastoni, Ghilardi; Calafiori, Barella, Tonali; Cambiaghi, Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito
France possible starting lineup:
Restes; Gusto, Yoro, Jacquet, Diouf; Camavinga, Da Cunha, Cherki; Olise, Doué, Barcola
Michael Olise has had a shot on target in four straight games and is 1.36 at bet365 to make it five. He averages 2.5 shots a game across that run.
Désiré Doué has also had a shot on target in four straight games, and averages 2.8 shots a game across the run. His shots line of 3 or more is 1.53 at bet365, and he has cleared it in each of his last five.
Sandro Tonali has had a shot in four straight games, at 1.3 a game, and is 1.44 at bet365. Riccardo Calafiori has had a shot in three straight games and made a tackle in each of them, averaging 2 tackles a game.
Eduardo Camavinga has had a shot in three straight games for France, at 1.67 with bet365.
We back France to win, and they are 1.95 at bet365. Italy are 3.75 at bet365 and the draw is 3.75 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Italy win | 3.75 (bet365) | 26% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 24% |
| France win | 1.95 (bet365) | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 (coral) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 54% |
We predict Italy 1-1 France. It is the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make France more likely to win at 50%. Our model has France scoring 1.71 goals to Italy's 1.15, and both teams to score at 56%.
In the shots market, Olise has had three or more shots in four of his last five games and is 1.55 at Ladbrokes and Coral. Bradley Barcola has committed a foul in each of his last five and is 1.48 at the same two books. Over 1.5 goals is a 78% chance in our model and 1.20 at bet365.
Italy vs France kicks off at 7:45pm UK on Thursday 12 November 2026 at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in League A of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27. It is the second meeting of the campaign after a 1-1 draw in Paris.
We predict Italy 1-1 France in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%. France are still 50% to win, Italy 26% and the draw 24%, with our model projecting 1.71 goals for France and 1.15 for Italy.
France are favourites to beat Italy at 1.95 with bet365 in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 game at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. They are 1st on 10 points from 4 games, three ahead of 2nd-placed Italy.
We make both teams to score 56% likely in Italy vs France in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, and it is 1.60 at Coral. Both teams have scored in 75% of Italy's games this campaign.
Ahead of Italy vs France, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué have each had a shot on target in 4 straight games for France in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27. Sandro Tonali has had a shot in 4 straight for Italy.
France lead their League A group in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 on 10 points from 4 games, and Italy are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games. France have conceded 2 goals, Italy 5.
Predicted lineups for Italy vs France in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026: Italy may start Donnarumma; Kayode, Romano, Bastoni, Ghilardi; Calafiori, Barella, Tonali; Cambiaghi, Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito. France may start Restes; Gusto, Yoro, Jacquet, Diouf; Camavinga, Da Cunha, Cherki; Olise, Doué, Barcola.