Updated 11 November 2026.
Norway host Wales at Ullevaal Stadion on Saturday 14 November, kick-off 17:00 UK, in League A of the UEFA Nations League. Wales won the reverse fixture 2-1 on 1 October, but we make Norway clear favourites at home, with a 71% chance of the win.
Norway are 4th in their League A group in the Nations League standings with 3 points from 4 games, one win and three defeats. They have lost their last three: a 1-2 home defeat to Portugal on 27 September, then 2-1 away defeats to Wales on 1 October and Portugal on 4 October. The one win in the group was a 3-2 victory over Denmark on 24 September. They have scored 6 and conceded 8, and every one of their Nations League games has had both teams scoring and more than 2.5 goals.
Wales are 3rd in the group with the same 3 points from the same four games, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their 2-1 home win over Norway is the only game in which they have scored more than once in the group, and they followed it with a 0-1 home loss to Denmark. Their goals-for figure is the 14th fewest in the competition and only one of their four games has had both sides scoring. Norway's shots on target average 5 a game, the 16th most, against 2.75 for Wales, the 11th fewest.
Our projection gives Norway 2.41 goals and 14.67 shots, with Wales at 0.88 goals and 8.47 shots.
Norway possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem; Berg, Berge, Aursnes; Ødegaard, Schjelderup, Nusa; Haaland
Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Roberts, Williams, Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu; James, Ashford, Johnson, Koumas; Cullen
Erling Haaland has had a shot in all four Nations League games, averaging 4.5 a game. He has also had at least two shots on target in four of his last five outings and is 1.30 at bet365 to do it again.
Andreas Schjelderup has registered a shot and a tackle in each of Norway's four group games, averaging 1.5 shots and 3 tackles. He is 1.29 at bet365 to make a tackle.
Ethan Ampadu has had a shot in four straight games (1.85 at Ladbrokes), a foul in four straight (1.14 at bet365) and two or more tackles in each of the last three (1.50 at bet365).
Neco Williams has made at least two tackles in all four group games at 2.8 a game. He is 1.29 at bet365 to make two tackles.
Patrick Berg has had a shot in four of his last five games, with a high of four, and is 1.33 at bet365 to have a shot here. He has also committed a foul in three straight games, at 1.36 at bet365.
Norway are 1.25 at Ladbrokes to win. We make them 71% to win, with the draw at 17% and Wales at 12%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Norway to win | 1.25 (Ladbrokes) | 71% |
| Draw | 7.00 (bet365) | 17% |
| Wales to win | 12.00 (BoyleSports) | 12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (Ladbrokes) | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (Coral) | 64% |
We predict a 2-0 Norway win, with 2-1 and 1-0 the next likeliest scorelines. We give Norway a 41% chance of a clean sheet and 2.5 goals or more a 64% chance. Wales have had both teams scoring in only one of four group games, while Norway have had it in all four, so BTTS sits close to a coin flip at 53%.
Norway vs Wales in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League (League A) kicks off at 17:00 UK on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Ullevaal Stadion. Norway are 4th in the group on 3 points from 4 games, with Wales 3rd on the same total.
Our prediction for Norway vs Wales in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League is a 2-0 home win, the likeliest scoreline at 10.8%. Norway are 71% likely to win, with the draw at 17% and Wales at 12%.
Norway are strong favourites for Saturday's 2026/27 UEFA Nations League game against Wales, priced at 1.25 with Ladbrokes. Our model gives them a 71% chance of winning, compared with 12% for Wales and 17% for the draw.
We give both teams to score a 53% chance in Norway vs Wales in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, with the best price 1.91 at Ladbrokes. Norway have had both sides score in 4 of 4 group games, Wales in 1 of 4.
In their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League League A group, Norway are 4th and Wales 3rd, both on 3 points from 4 games with one win and three defeats. Norway have a 6-8 goal record, Wales 2-5.
In the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, Erling Haaland has had at least 1 shot in all 4 group games, averaging 4.5 a game. Ethan Ampadu has had a shot in 4 straight and Neco Williams has made 2+ tackles in 4 straight.
Predicted lineups for Norway vs Wales in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026: Norway may start Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem; Berg, Berge, Aursnes; Ødegaard, Schjelderup, Nusa; Haaland. Wales may start Ward; Roberts, Williams, Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu; James, Ashford, Johnson, Koumas; Cullen.