Updated 14 November 2026.
Germany host Netherlands at the Olympiastadion Berlin on Monday 16 November, kick-off 19:45 UK, in the UEFA Nations League. The Dutch arrive top of their League A group on 11 points after beating Greece 7-0 on Friday, while Germany sit 3rd on 8 points after winning 3-1 at Serbia, also on Friday. Germany have conceded three goals in five games, and Netherlands have scored 14.
These two have already met this season. The 1-1 draw in Netherlands in September was the first of the five games for each, and Germany have lost only once since, to Greece. Our model has Germany as the more likely winner on Monday.
Netherlands are unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws, and have scored 14 goals in them. They score 2.8 a game, the 2nd most in the competition, and their shots on target figure of 8.6 a game is the most of any team. Both teams have scored in 80% of Netherlands games, the 5th highest rate, and 80% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest. They have kept a clean sheet in only 20% of games. Before the 7-0 win over Greece on Friday, they won 2-1 against Serbia and drew 2-2 in Greece.
Germany concede 0.6 a game, the 9th fewest in the competition, and have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games. They score 1.2 a game, and only 20% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Their last five games were a 1-1 draw in the Netherlands, a 1-0 home defeat to Greece, a 2-0 home win over Serbia, a 0-0 at Greece and the 3-1 win at Serbia on Friday. They trail the Dutch by three points in their League A group.
The Dutch average 7 corners a game, the 3rd most, against 6 for Germany, the 7th most. The Germans commit more fouls, 13.2 a game to the Dutch 9.4, and both sides average 1.2 cards a game, the 9th fewest.
Tijjani Reijnders has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 3.2, and a shot on target in four in a row. He is 1.04 at bet365 for a shot, and 1.44 for a shot on target. Crysencio Summerville has also had a shot in five straight, at 2.4 a game.
Centre-back Micky van de Ven has made a tackle in five straight games, averaging 2.2.
For Germany, Florian Wirtz has had three or more shots in three straight games and averages 4.3 across them, with a price of 1.67 at bet365. Derry Scherhant has had two or more shots in each of his last three games, at 4.7 a game, and centre-back Malick Thiaw has had a shot in three straight, averaging 1.7.
We back Germany to win at 1.91 with Ladbrokes. The home side carry a 53% chance in our model, with the draw at 22% and a Dutch win at 25%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Germany to win | 1.91 (Ladbrokes) | 53% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Netherlands to win | 3.80 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 62% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at just under 10%, with 2-1 to Germany almost level on 9.7%. Overall we make Germany the likelier winner. Our model projects 1.95 goals for Germany to 1.26 for the Netherlands, with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 61%.
Germany vs Netherlands in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League kicks off at 19:45 UK on Monday 16 November 2026 at the Olympiastadion Berlin. It is a League A fixture between the 3rd and 1st placed sides in their group, on 8 and 11 points.
Our prediction for Germany vs Netherlands in the 2026/27 Nations League is a 1-1 draw, which has a 9.9% chance as the likeliest single score, though we make Germany 53% to win.
Germany are favourite against Netherlands in the 2026/27 Nations League, with a 53% chance of winning in our model, against 22% for a draw and 25% for a Dutch win. The best price on the home side is 1.91.
We give both teams to score a 61% chance in Germany vs Netherlands in the 2026/27 Nations League, and over 2.5 goals 62%. Both teams have scored in 80% of Netherlands games.
Tijjani Reijnders and Crysencio Summerville have each had a shot in five straight Netherlands games in the 2026/27 Nations League. Micky van de Ven has made a tackle in five in a row.
Ahead of Germany vs Netherlands in the 2026/27 Nations League, Netherlands lead their League A group with 11 points from 5 games, while Germany are 3rd with 8 points from 5, three points behind the Dutch.