Updated 14 November 2026.
Greece host Serbia at the Dimotiko Stadio Neapolis Volou on Monday 16 November, with kick-off at 19:45 UK time in the UEFA Nations League. Greece sit 2nd in their League A group on 8 points. Serbia are 4th on 0 points from five games, and none of those five has brought so much as a draw.
Greece lost 7-0 in the Netherlands on Friday, which turned a goal difference of +2 into one of -5 (5 scored, 10 conceded). Before that they had gone unbeaten in four, with two wins and two draws. Serbia also lost on Friday, 3-1 to Germany.
Greece have played five Nations League games: a 2-1 win in Serbia on 24 September, a 1-0 win away at Germany, a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, a 0-0 draw with Germany and then the 7-0 loss to the Netherlands. Serbia lost that first meeting by a goal.
Serbia have lost all five of their Nations League games. They went down 1-3 to Germany last time out, 2-1 in the Netherlands and 2-0 in Germany before that. They have scored in four of the five, but conceded 11, which is 2.2 a game and the 7th most in the competition. They have no clean sheets, and their goals come at 0.8 a game.
Greece have 3.4 shots on target a game, the 15th fewest, and they commit the 2nd fewest fouls at 8.2 a game. Serbia average 2.8 cards a game, the 8th most, and 2 corners a game, the 3rd fewest.
Greece's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, Serbia's 80%, the 3rd highest rate in the competition. Both teams have scored in 80% of Serbia's games, the 5th highest.
Konstantinos Mavropanos, a centre-back, has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 1.6 a game, and has made a tackle in four straight, averaging 1.8.
Right-back Athanasios Androutsos has made a tackle in four straight games, averaging 3.3, and left-back Konstantinos Tsimikas has a four-game tackle run of his own at 2 a game. Striker Vangelis Pavlidis has committed a foul in four straight games.
For Serbia, centre-back Strahinja Pavlović has made a tackle and committed a foul in each of his last four games, averaging 2.3 tackles and 2 fouls. Filip Kostić has made a tackle in four straight, also averaging 2.3.
We back Greece to win, and bet365 have them at 1.45. A Serbia win is 6.5 and the draw 4.75.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Greece win | 1.45 (bet365) | 64% |
| Draw | 4.75 (bet365) | 21% |
| Serbia win | 6.5 (bet365) | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 (Ladbrokes) | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 51% |
Our prediction is Greece 1-0 Serbia. Our model has Greece scoring 1.91 goals to Serbia's 0.8, and gives Greece a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet. A 2-0 win is close behind 1-0, while 1-1 is third at around 10%, so a draw is in play. Serbia have scored in four of their five games and conceded in all of them, and our model puts over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Our projections have Greece taking 12.8 shots to Serbia's 8.1, with 4.7 on target to 2.8.
Greece vs Serbia in the UEFA Nations League kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 16 November 2026 at the Dimotiko Stadio Neapolis Volou. It is the second meeting of the two sides in the 2026/27 League A group, after Greece won 2-1 in Serbia on 24 September.
Our prediction for Greece vs Serbia in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League is a 1-0 home win, with Greece given a 64% chance of winning. A 2-0 Greece win is next likeliest, and a draw is in play at 21%.
Greece are favourites for the 16 November 2026/27 UEFA Nations League match against Serbia at 1.45 with bet365, against 6.5 for a Serbia win. Our model agrees, giving Greece a 64% chance against 15% for Serbia.
Both teams to score in Greece vs Serbia in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League has a 47% chance in our model, with Ladbrokes at 1.85. Serbia have scored in 4 of their 5 Nations League games this season, and both sides scored in 80% of them.
Over 2.5 goals in Greece vs Serbia in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League has a 51% chance in our model, with bet365 at 1.67. Serbia's games have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time this Nations League season, the 3rd highest rate in the competition.
Ahead of Greece vs Serbia in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, Greece are 2nd in their League A group with 8 points from 5 games, while Serbia are 4th on 0 points. Serbia have lost all 5 of their games and conceded 11 goals.