Bragantino vs Cruzeiro Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Bragantino host Cruzeiro at the Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in the Campeonato Brasileiro, with kick-off at 1am UK on Tuesday 13 October. The home side have gone five league games without a win, while the visitors sit 5th and arrive off a 2-0 win over São Paulo. Bragantino are 11th on 37 points from 29 games, while Cruzeiro have 48 and a place in the chase for the top four.

The shape of the game is in the numbers. Bragantino have the 3rd fewest goals conceded per game in the division, and Cruzeiro are the 3rd highest for both teams scoring.

How the teams arrive

Bragantino have not won in the league since early September. Their last five were a 2-3 home defeat to Bahia, a 1-1 draw at Botafogo, a 2-1 loss at Flamengo, a 1-0 loss at Atlético-MG and, most recently, a 1-1 home draw with Mirassol. They have scored in four of those five, so the problem has been closing games out rather than creating chances.

The defensive record is still strong. Bragantino have the 3rd fewest goals against per game in the league and the 5th highest clean-sheet rate, at 28%. They also take the 4th most shots on target and win the 3rd most corners, which fits a side with 34 goals from 29 games sitting in the middle of the table.

Cruzeiro's recent run is uneven but pointed the right way. They lost 3-1 at Vasco, then beat Athletico PR 3-1, lost 2-1 at Santos, won 3-1 at Vitória and beat São Paulo 2-0 at home. That is three wins in five, and they scored in four. Across the season they have the 6th most goals per game and the highest rate of Over 2.5 goals in the division, at 66%, with both teams scoring in 69% of their games, the 3rd highest.

Both clubs foul a lot. Cruzeiro commit the 3rd most fouls per game and Bragantino the 6th most, and Bragantino's cards per game rank 2nd most in the league. The league table has them separated by 11 points.

Predicted lineups

Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Tiago Volpi; Guzmán Rodríguez, Gustavo Marques, Hurtado, Juninho Capixaba; Eric Ramires, Patrick, Lucas Barbosa; Eduardo Sasha, Wallace Yan, Fernando

Cruzeiro possible starting lineup:
Otávio Costa; William, João Marcelo, Jonathan Jesus, Gabriel Rojas; Lucas Romero, Gerson; Bruno Rodrigues, Matheus Pereira, Felipe Morais, Kaio Jorge

Players to watch

Fernando is the name to start with. The Bragantino striker has had three or more shots in five straight games, averaging 4.8 a game, which is the best run of its kind in the division. Three-plus shots is 1.33 at Ladbrokes.

Juninho Capixaba has been busy at left-back. He has made a tackle in 14 straight games and committed two or more fouls in six in a row, a run that ranks 1st in the competition. A foul in this game, as usual, is on the cards, and two or more fouls is 1.95 at Midnite.

For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira has had two or more shots in six straight games and averages 3.2 per game. That run is priced at 1.44 at Ladbrokes. Jonathan Jesus has made two or more tackles in six in a row, averaging 3.2, and 1.91 at bet365 is on offer for another two.

Right winger Keny Arroyo has had a shot in 17 consecutive games, the longest run on either side, at 2.6 shots a game.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back Bragantino at home, with the best price on the home win 2.20 at bet365. Cruzeiro are 3.10 at bet365 and the draw is 3.60 at Ladbrokes. Our model gives the home side the edge at 42%, with the draw at 27% and the visitors at 30%.

We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Bragantino slightly more likely to win the game. Our model expects 1.53 goals from Bragantino and 1.27 from Cruzeiro, and puts both teams scoring at 58%. Bragantino have 5.45 shots on target projected against 4.29 for Cruzeiro.

For a Cruzeiro angle, Bruno Rodrigues has had a shot in all five of his recent games, and Matheus Pereira has cleared two shots in each of the last five. William has committed a foul in each of those five games too, at 1.20 at bet365.