Coritiba vs Botafogo Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Coritiba host Botafogo at the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira on Monday 12 October, kick-off 8pm UK. Three points separate two mid-table sides in the Campeonato Brasileiro table, and both arrive on the back of defeats. Coritiba sit 10th on 38 points, Botafogo 13th on 35, and the model cannot split them: a win for either side is rated at roughly 36 per cent.

The contrast is Botafogo's attack against a Coritiba back line that has been leaking goals. Botafogo have gone over 2.5 goals in 66% of their games, the highest rate in the division, and Coritiba have shipped five at Vasco and four at Fluminense in their last two away trips.

How the teams arrive

Coritiba have lost their last two, both away from home and both heavy: 5-0 at Vasco on 19 September and, most recently, 4-0 at Fluminense on 9 October. Before that came a 3-3 draw with Athletico PR and a 1-2 home loss to Mirassol, with a 3-2 win at Remo the last time they collected three points. Across the season they have scored 37 and conceded 47, and only two sides have a worse record for goals against per game, at 1.62.

They are a quiet side by the numbers. They have the fewest shots on target, corners and fouls per game in the league, and the 2nd fewest cards. Their shots on target average of 3.34 is the lowest in the division.

Botafogo lost 2-1 at home to Vasco on 7 October. Before that they lost 2-0 at Mirassol, beat Grêmio 3-2 and drew 1-1 with Bragantino and 0-0 with Palmeiras. They have scored 42 and conceded 47, with both teams scoring in 69% of their games, the 3rd highest rate in the league.

Their shots on target come in at 5.07 a game, the 5th most, and they are the 2nd most carded side in the league at 2.9 per game. Their fouls average 13.21, the 8th most.

Predicted lineups

Coritiba possible starting lineup:
Pedro Morisco; Bustos, Moledo, Maicon, Felipe Jonatan; Thiago Santos, Sebastián Gómez, Josué; Lavega, Breno Lopes, Pedro Rocha

Botafogo possible starting lineup:
Gabriel Batista; Ponte, Ferraresi, Monzón, Alex Telles; Medina, Danilo, Huguinho; Ziyech, Matheus Martins, Arthur Cabral

Players to watch

Arthur Cabral has had at least one shot in 19 straight games, the 3rd longest such run in the competition, and averages 2.7 a game. He is 1.05 at bet365 to make it 20.

Matheus Martins has a shot in 14 straight and averages 2.4, so Botafogo's two wide and central forwards both arrive in rhythm.

Nahuel Ferraresi is the standout defender. He has made three or more tackles in seven consecutive games, the longest run in the division, and has committed a foul in 13 straight. He is 1.73 for another three-tackle game and 2.25 for two or more fouls.

Thiago Santos has made a tackle in 13 straight games for Coritiba, averaging 1.8, and Pedro Rocha has had a shot in six in a row at 2.7 a game and is 1.04 at bet365 to extend it.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

The model has nothing to choose between the sides, so the interest is in the player markets. Fabricio Bustos has committed a foul in four of his last five and is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again, while Alex Telles has made a tackle in each of his last five and is 1.20. Hakim Ziyech has had a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.40 at bet365.

We predict a 1-1 draw, with a draw very much in play at 28%, though the 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines each sit just behind at around 8%. We expect both teams to score at 58%, and Botafogo's 69% both-teams-to-score rate backs that up.