Cruzeiro vs Remo Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Cruzeiro host Remo at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in the Campeonato Brasileiro, with kick-off at 00:00 UK on Saturday 24 October. It pairs a side sitting 4th in the table on 51 points with a side in 19th on 26, and the gap shows up in nearly every number we have.

Cruzeiro's games tend to be open. Remo have drawn three of their last five and have not found a way to turn those draws into wins, so the visitors arrive as heavy underdogs.

How the teams arrive

Cruzeiro have won 15 and lost 10 of their 31 games, scoring 50 and conceding 46. Their last five read lost, won, won, lost, won: a 4-2 win at Grêmio on 18 October, a 4-2 defeat at Bragantino five days earlier, and before that a 2-0 home win over São Paulo. They also won 3-1 at Vitória in September.

The attack is what stands out. At 1.61 goals a game they have the 3rd most goals in the league, and they have the 5th most shots on target at 5.26 a game. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of their matches, the highest rate in the division, and both teams have scored in 71%, the 2nd highest. The defence is the soft spot, conceding 1.48 a game, the 6th most.

Remo have won five, drawn 11 and lost 15, scoring 34 and conceding 49. Their last five, newest first, are a 1-1 with Bragantino, a 0-0 at Vasco, a 1-1 with Grêmio, then a 2-1 loss to Santos and a 2-1 defeat at Bahia. Three draws in a row have followed two defeats.

They average 1.10 goals a game, the 6th fewest, and have the 5th fewest shots on target at 3.90 a game. They concede 1.58 a game, the 3rd most, and keep a clean sheet in only 13% of matches, the 4th lowest rate.

Predicted lineups

Cruzeiro possible starting lineup:
Otávio Costa; William, Villalba, Jonathan Jesus, Rojas; Zé Lucas, Matheus Henrique, Gerson; Matheus Pereira, Keny Arroyo; Kaio Jorge

Remo possible starting lineup:
Marcelo Rangel; Marcelinho, Marllon, Zé Ivaldo, Zé Welison; Marlon, Zé Ricardo, Yago Pikachu; Galeano, Patrick Bezerra do Nascimento; Jajá

Players to watch

Keny Arroyo has had at least one shot in 19 straight games, and averages 2.7 shots a game. He is 1.02 at midnite to make it 20. He has also committed a foul in four in a row.

Matheus Pereira has shot in nine consecutive games at 2.9 a game and fouled in five straight. The fouls have come every time in his last five, with 2, 1, 2, 3 and 1, and that market is 1.25 at midnite.

Kaio Jorge has put a shot on target in four of his last five, three on target in each of three of them.

William has fouled in six straight and averages 2.5 a game, 1.25 at bet365 for one or more.

For Remo, Gabriel Taliari has had a shot in 11 straight games at 2.2 a game, 1.20 at bet365. Vitor Bueno has managed two or more shots in four in a row and averages 3.3 across that run, priced 2.00 at bet365.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back Cruzeiro to win, and Ladbrokes make them 1.36. Our model gives them a 65% chance, with the draw at 21% and a Remo win at 14%. Between Matheus Pereira's fouls, William's fouls, Kaio Jorge's shot on target and Lucas Villalba having a shot, a four-leg combination pays 2.66.

We predict a 2-0 Cruzeiro win. We project them at 2.24 goals to Remo's 0.98, and 2-1 sits almost level with 2-0 at 10% each, so a Remo goal is very much in play. A 1-1 draw is also in the mix at 10%. Over 2.5 goals is 62% on our numbers, and both teams to score 57%.