Updated 26 October 2026.
Coritiba host Grêmio at the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira on Monday 26 October, kicking off at 22:30 UK time. Coritiba sit 12th in the Campeonato Brasileiro on 39 points from 31 games, while Grêmio are 18th of 20 on 31, eight behind. Coritiba are winless in their last five and Grêmio have won only one of their last ten.
Coritiba have won 10, drawn 9 and lost 12, scoring 38 and conceding 49. Their last five games began with a 3-3 draw with Athletico PR, then a 5-0 loss at Vasco and a 4-0 defeat at Fluminense. Next came a 1-1 home draw with Botafogo and then a 1-0 loss at Atlético-MG last time out. Across their last ten they have taken a win in only three.
At 1.58 goals against per game, Coritiba concede the 3rd most in the league. At the other end they are short of shots, with the fewest on target in the division at 3.32 a game, and they also win the fewest corners.
Grêmio have won 7, drawn 10 and lost 14, with 34 scored and 44 conceded. They have drawn three of their last five, a goalless one with Palmeiras, a 1-1 at Remo and a 1-1 with Internacional, and lost the other two, most recently 4-2 at home to Cruzeiro, with a 3-2 defeat at Botafogo in mid-September.
Grêmio are a card-heavy side, with the 2nd most cards in the league at 2.87 a game, and both teams have scored in 61% of their games, against 52% of Coritiba's.
Coritiba possible starting lineup:
Morisco; Bustos, Fonseca, Cóser, Melo; Jacy, Gómez, Lavega; Josué, Lopes, Rocha
Grêmio possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Caito, Wallace, Martins, Marlon; Villasanti, Noriega; Krovinovic, Pavón, Carlos Vinícius, Amuzu
Filip Krovinovic has had a shot in eight straight games for Grêmio, averaging 1.8 a game, and 1+ shots is 1.14 at Ladbrokes. His team-mate Diego Caito has managed a shot in six in a row from right-back, averaging 2 a game across the run, and is 1.40 at Ladbrokes.
On the Coritiba side, Joaquín Lavega has had a shot in seven consecutive games, and bet365 have him at 1.08 to extend the run. Tiago Cóser has a four-game run of shots from centre-back, averaging 1.5 a game, and is 1.80 at bet365.
Wallace has made at least one tackle in nine straight games for Grêmio and is 1.22 at Ladbrokes. Erick Noriega has committed two or more fouls in six in a row, averaging 2.8 a game, which is 2.10 at Midnite.
We make Coritiba the favourites at 47%, with the draw at 28% and a Grêmio win at 25%. The best price on Coritiba is 2.20 with Ladbrokes, the draw is 3.40 at Ladbrokes and Grêmio are 3.40 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Coritiba win | 2.20 (Ladbrokes) | 47% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | 28% |
| Grêmio win | 3.40 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (Midnite) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 (bet365) | 50% |
Our projection is 1.57 goals for Coritiba and 1.09 for Grêmio. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 13%, so a draw is in play, though we make Coritiba the more likely winner and predict Coritiba 1-1 Grêmio. We give Coritiba a 34% chance of a clean sheet and Grêmio 21%.
We give over 2.5 goals a 50% chance and over 1.5 goals 76%.
The match kicks off at 22:30 UK time on Monday 26 October 2026 at the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
Our prediction is Coritiba 1-1 Grêmio. We make Coritiba slightly more likely to win, with a 47% chance against 25% for Grêmio and 28% for the draw.
Coritiba are favourites at 2.20 with Ladbrokes. Grêmio are 3.40 at bet365 and the draw is 3.40 at Ladbrokes.
Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, and the best price is 1.73 at Midnite. We give over 2.5 goals 50%, with a best price of 1.85 at bet365.
Coritiba are 12th on 39 points after 31 games. Grêmio are 18th on 31 points, eight behind.
Filip Krovinovic of Grêmio has had at least one shot in eight straight games. Joaquín Lavega of Coritiba has done so in seven in a row.
Coritiba: Morisco; Bustos, Fonseca, Cóser, Melo; Jacy, Gómez, Lavega; Josué, Lopes, Rocha. Grêmio: Weverton; Caito, Wallace, Martins, Marlon; Villasanti, Noriega; Krovinovic, Pavón, Carlos Vinícius, Amuzu.