Updated 13 October 2026.
Nashville SC host Sporting KC at GEODIS Park in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 1:30am UK on Thursday 15 October. The hosts have the best defence in the division and the visitors have the leakiest, and the numbers on both sides are lopsided.
Nashville lead the Eastern Conference with 63 points from 28 games, having won 19 and lost only three. Sporting KC are bottom of the Western Conference on 22 points, with six wins from 28. Our model gives the hosts a 74% chance of winning, and the visitors have conceded more goals per game than anyone else in the league.
Nashville have been hard to stop. They have won seven of their last ten, and the latest was a 4-1 win at Austin on 11 October. Before that came a 2-0 home win over Toronto and a 3-0 win against Chicago Fire. A 2-2 draw at Inter Miami and a 2-1 defeat at Toronto are the only blemishes in their last five.
The defensive record is the headline. Nashville concede 0.79 goals a game, the fewest in MLS, and have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their matches. They have scored 59 and conceded 22 in 28 games.
Sporting KC's season reads very differently. They have lost 18 of 28 and conceded 68 goals, 2.43 a game, the most in MLS. They have kept a clean sheet in only 4% of games.
Their recent games have still been lively. They drew 3-3 with Portland on 11 October, lost 2-1 at Seattle, won 2-0 at Houston and lost 4-3 to Philadelphia. Their last five brought a 3-1 win over LAFC as well. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of their games, and they have scored in each of their last five. Whether they can do that against Nashville's back line is the question for Thursday morning.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Valdez; Nájar, Palacios, Woledzi, Baker-Whiting; Yazbek, Corcoran; Espinoza, Mukhtar, Saad; Surridge
Sporting KC possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Reynolds, Miller, Meyer, Karic; Agyabeng, Bassong; Afrifa, Calheira, André Luiz; Harris
Sam Surridge is Nashville's clearest shot-market option. He has had a shot on target in 11 straight games and three or more shots in six in a row, averaging 4.5 shots a game across that run. His shot-on-target line is 1.09 at Ladbrokes and the three-shot line is 1.06 at bet365.
Elias Saad has had two or more shots in seven consecutive games, averaging 2.4, and is 1.10 at bet365 to make it eight.
Matthew Corcoran has made at least one tackle in 18 straight games, averaging 2.9.
For the visitors, André Luiz has put three or more shots in six straight games, averaging 4.8, and has had a shot on target in each of those six. He is 2.20 at bet365 for three shots and 1.62 for a shot on target, and he has had at least one on target in all of his last five.
Emir Karic has made a tackle in 14 straight games at left-back, averaging 2.2.
We back Nashville SC, who are 1.25 at Ladbrokes to win. The bookmakers and our model agree on the result, so the interest is in the player markets, where Surridge, Saad and André Luiz all have runs behind them.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 1.25 (Ladbrokes) | 74% |
| Draw | 7.00 (bet365) | 16% |
| Sporting KC win | 9.50 (bet365) | 9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 68% |
We predict a 2-0 win for Nashville, the likeliest single score at 10.6%, with 3-0 and 2-1 next. We project Nashville for 2.63 goals and Sporting KC for 0.86, and give the hosts a 42% chance of a clean sheet. Their projected 7.5 shots on target against 3.1 for the visitors backs that up.
Sporting KC have scored in five straight games, so a goal for them is in play, and we put both teams to score at 54%. Two or more goals for Nashville is where we lean.
Kick-off at GEODIS Park is 1:30am UK on Thursday 15 October 2026.
We predict a 2-0 win for Nashville SC. We give them a 74% chance of winning, with the draw at 16% and a Sporting KC win at 9%.
Nashville SC are favourites at 1.25 with Ladbrokes. They lead the Eastern Conference, While Sporting KC are bottom of the Western Conference.
We put both teams to score at 54%, with bet365 at 1.67. Sporting KC have scored in each of their last five games, but Nashville have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their matches,
Sam Surridge has had a shot on target in 11 straight games and three or more shots in six in a row. Elias Saad has had two or more shots in seven consecutive games.
André Luiz has had three or more shots in six straight games and a shot on target in each, averaging 4.8 shots a game over that run.
Nashville SC lead the Eastern Conference with 63 points from 28 games. Sporting KC are 15th in the Western Conference with 22 points from 28.
Nashville: Valdez; Nájar, Palacios, Woledzi, Baker-Whiting; Yazbek, Corcoran; Espinoza, Mukhtar, Saad; Surridge. Sporting KC: Cleveland; Reynolds, Miller, Meyer, Karic; Agyabeng, Bassong; Afrifa, Calheira, André Luiz; Harris.