Updated 13 October 2026.
DC United, 12th in the Eastern Conference, welcome New York RB, 8th, to Audi Field with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Thursday 15 October. It is a game between two sides who have found it hard to turn chances into wins: DC have drawn 12 of their 27 matches, while New York RB have conceded 52 goals in 28.
The home side have been outscored badly of late, losing 4-0 at Inter Miami last time out, but our model still makes them favourites in front of their own supporters. New York RB, meanwhile, come off a 4-1 win over San Diego that broke a run of mixed results.
DC United sit 12th on 30 points from 27 games, with six wins, 12 draws and nine defeats. Their goals are the problem: 34 scored and 46 conceded, and an average of 1.26 scored per game.
The recent results are scrappy. A 3-3 draw at Vancouver was followed by the 4-0 defeat in Miami, and before that came a 1-2 home loss to Charlotte. At home they have been steadier: a 0-0 draw with Atlanta and a 2-1 win over Columbus sit in the last five. They also commit plenty of fouls, averaging 12.96 a game.
New York RB are 8th on 36 points from 28, with 10 wins, six draws and 12 defeats, and a goal difference of minus 14. They have won three of their last five, including 1-0 victories at NYCFC and Columbus, but they were beaten 3-0 at home by St. Louis on 30 September. They concede 1.86 goals a game and keep a clean sheet in only 14% of matches.
DC United possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Nono, Rowles, Bartlett, Kurokawa; Dozzell, Peltola, Kijima; Peglow, Baribo, Munteanu
New York RB possible starting lineup:
Horvath; Nealis, Che, Bazán, Padelford; Donkor, Mehmeti, Sofo; Cowell, Hall, Ruvalcaba
Tai Baribo has had at least one shot in 12 straight games for DC United, averaging 2.6 a game, and he is 1.01 at bet365 to keep that going. He has also hit the target in four of his last five.
Ronald Donkor has committed a foul in 13 consecutive games for New York RB, which is the 2nd-longest such run in the competition, and he has made a tackle in each of his last seven too.
Julian Hall has had a shot on target in each of his last five matches and 12 in total over that spell. He is 1.44 at bet365 to add another here.
Cade Cowell has had a shot in seven straight games, at 1.07 with bet365, and is averaging 2.3 shots a game.
Matti Peltola has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.36 at bet365 for a shot here.
We back DC United to win, and Ladbrokes have them at 1.83. Our model gives the home side a 52% chance, against 23% for the draw and 25% for New York RB, who are 3.60 at bet365. The draw is 4.10.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| DC United win | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 52% |
| Draw | 4.10 (bet365) | 23% |
| New York RB win | 3.60 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 66% |
We expect DC to score about 2.04 goals and New York RB about 1.37, which fits two sides who give up plenty. Both teams to score is a 66% chance in our model and over 2.5 goals the same, and both sides concede freely.
Our predicted score is 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at around 10%, so a draw is in play, though we make DC United the more likely side to win and 2-1 is close behind. Prediction: DC United 1-1 New York RB.
Kick-off at Audi Field is 00:30 UK on Thursday 15 October 2026.
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single scoreline, though our model makes DC United more likely to win overall, at 52% to New York RB's 25%.
DC United are favourites at 1.83 with Ladbrokes. New York RB are 3.6 and the draw is 4.1 at bet365.
Our model gives both teams to score a 66% chance, and bet365 have it at 1.50. New York RB have kept a clean sheet in only 14% of their matches.
Tai Baribo has had a shot in 12 straight games for DC United, and Julian Hall has had a shot on target in each of his last five for New York RB.
In the Eastern Conference, DC United are 12th on 30 points from 27 games. New York RB are 8th on 36 points from 28.
DC United: Johnson; Nono, Rowles, Bartlett, Kurokawa; Dozzell, Peltola, Kijima; Peglow, Baribo, Munteanu. New York RB: Horvath; Nealis, Che, Bazán, Padelford; Donkor, Mehmeti, Sofo; Cowell, Hall, Ruvalcaba.