Updated 13 October 2026.
Toronto welcome Orlando City to Toronto Stadium for a Major League Soccer game that kicks off at 00:30 UK on Thursday 15 October. Orlando arrive 7th in the Eastern Conference and Toronto 11th, but the numbers that stand out are at the back: these are two sides who leak goals. On 12 September Orlando City beat Toronto 3-0 in Florida, and Toronto will want to put that right.
Both sides have a recent win to lean on. Toronto beat CF Montréal on Saturday, and Orlando City edged a five-goal game against Columbus the same day. We expect plenty of goals, with our model putting both teams scoring at 69%.
Toronto are 11th in the Eastern Conference on 32 points from 28 games, with seven wins, 11 draws and ten defeats. Only 41 goals scored against 52 conceded tells the story. Their last result was a 2-1 win over CF Montréal on 10 October, which followed three straight away defeats, including 2-0 at Nashville SC and 3-1 at St. Louis.
Both teams have scored in 79% of Toronto's games, and they have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of matches. They average 4.36 shots on target a game.
Orlando City sit 7th on 37 points from 28, with 11 wins, four draws and 13 defeats. They score freely, 1.82 a game, but ship 2.36. That has produced wild scorelines: a 3-2 win over Columbus last time out, defeats of 4-2 at Philadelphia and 4-2 at New England, and a 3-2 win at Atlanta. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of their games.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Laryea, Kuscevic, Gomis, Pereira; Coello, Dorsch; Corbeanu, Mihailovic, Sallói; Sargent
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Crépeau; Taifi, Jansson, Brekalo, Goncalves; Atuesta, Cartagena; Angulo, Ojeda, Ellis; Griezmann
Martín Ojeda has had a shot on target in 12 straight games, the longest such run in the competition, and he averages 1.9 a game. He is 1.25 at bet365 to make it 13.
Antoine Griezmann has had two or more shots in each of his last 12 games and averages three a game. He has also made at least one tackle in five straight, and he is 1.13 at bet365 for two or more shots.
Iván Angulo has had a shot on target in six straight and is 2.20 at Ladbrokes to extend that run.
Josh Sargent has had at least one shot in six consecutive games, averaging 3.7 a game.
Niklas Dorsch has committed a foul in eight straight games, averaging 1.9 a game.
Our model backs Toronto, who are 2.15 at bet365 to win at home. Beyond the result, Ojeda and Griezmann are both 1.25 at bet365 for a shot on target, with Ojeda on a 12-game run and Griezmann having done it in four of his last five.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto win | 2.15 (bet365) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 23% |
| Orlando City win | 3.00 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 69% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at just under 10%, though we make Toronto more likely to win than Orlando. We project 2.02 goals for Toronto and 1.56 for Orlando City, and a 2-1 home win is the next most likely score. Over 1.5 goals is 1.11 at bet365 and our model puts it at 88%.
Kick-off at Toronto Stadium is 00:30 UK time on Thursday 15 October 2026.
We predict a 1-1 draw, though we make a Toronto win slightly more likely than an Orlando City win.
Toronto are the favourites at 2.15 with bet365, with Orlando City at 3.00 and the draw at 3.80. Our model gives Toronto a 48% chance of winning.
We make it likely, at 69%, and bet365 offer 1.40. Both teams have scored in 79% of Toronto's games.
Martín Ojeda has had a shot on target in 12 straight games, the longest run in the competition, and he is 1.25 at bet365 to do so again.
In the Eastern Conference, Orlando City are 7th on 37 points and Toronto are 11th on 32 points, both after 28 games.
Toronto: Yarbrough; Laryea, Kuscevic, Gomis, Pereira; Coello, Dorsch; Corbeanu, Mihailovic, Sallói; Sargent. Orlando City: Crépeau; Taifi, Jansson, Brekalo, Goncalves; Atuesta, Cartagena; Angulo, Ojeda, Ellis; Griezmann.