Updated 13 October 2026.
Cincinnati host New England at TQL Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Thursday 15 October 2026. The hosts are the league's 3rd-highest scorers, while the visitors sit 4th in the Eastern Conference and have won 14 of their 28 games.
Cincinnati are 9th on 36 points from 27 games, with 58 goals scored and 65 conceded. New England have 46 points from 28, with 45 scored and 39 against.
Cincinnati's league position is steadier than their results. They have lost two of their last five, drawn two and won once, and that win was a 3-1 success at Atlanta on 10 October. Before it came a 3-1 defeat at CF Montréal, a 2-2 draw at Houston and a 3-3 draw with Charlotte, and a 5-0 hammering at Philadelphia opened that run.
The goals keep coming. Cincinnati average 2.15 goals a game and both teams have scored in 78% of their matches. The other side of it is a defence that has conceded 2.41 a game, with a clean sheet in only 7% of games. They also create plenty, with 5.85 shots on target a game.
New England come in on a poor run, beaten 3-0 at home by Seattle and 3-0 at RSL before that. Before those they beat Orlando City 4-2 at home and won 2-1 at both Chicago Fire and NYCFC.
Their numbers are more measured than Cincinnati's: they concede 1.39 a game and both teams have scored in 61% of their games, though 71% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals. In the Eastern Conference table they sit five places and ten points clear of their hosts.
Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Louro; Smith, Robinson, Hadebe, Malacia; Nwobodo, Bucha, Gidi; Valenzuela; Barlow, Denkey
New England possible starting lineup:
Turner; Polster, Kohler, Sands, Wynder; Yueill, Raines, Gil; Langoni, Turgeman, Miller
Carles Gil has had a shot in 16 straight games for New England, averaging 2.4 a game, and is 1.03 at bet365 to make it 17. His team-mate Dor Turgeman has a 12-game run of his own, averaging 2.8 shots, and is 1.02 for another.
Peyton Miller is the unusual one. The left-back has had two or more shots in eight straight games, averaging 3.8, and has had a shot on target in four in a row. He is 1.65 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target and 1.25 at bet365 for two or more shots.
For Cincinnati, Tom Barlow has had a shot on target in four straight games and is 1.40 at bet365 to extend it. He has hit that mark in four of his last five.
Luca Langoni is the pick of the visitors' wide men, with two or more shots in four of his last five and a price of 1.25 at bet365 for it again.
We back Cincinnati to win at 1.91 with bet365, and our model gives them a 49% chance, against 29% for New England and 22% for a draw. Cincinnati's average of 2.13 projected goals to 1.61 for the visitors makes this a game with goals in it.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati win | 1.91 (bet365) | 49% |
| Draw | 4.10 (bet365) | 22% |
| New England win | 3.30 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 (bet365) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 72% |
1-1 is the likeliest single score at 9%, with 2-1 to Cincinnati just behind at 8.7%, so a draw is in play. We still make the hosts the likelier winners, and our prediction is a 1-1 draw. Both teams to score comes in at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%, which fits a Cincinnati side whose games are rarely quiet. The three-leg combination of Barlow, Miller and Langoni each landing comes to 2.68 at bet365.
Kick-off at TQL Stadium is 00:30 UK on Thursday 15 October 2026.
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 9%, though we make Cincinnati the likelier winners at 49%.
Cincinnati are favourites at 1.91 with bet365. New England are 3.30 and the draw is 4.10.
Our model gives both teams to score a 71% chance, and bet365 price it at 1.36. Cincinnati have conceded 2.41 a game.
We give over 2.5 goals a 72% chance, with bet365 at 1.40. 74% of Cincinnati's games and 71% of New England's have gone over that line.
Carles Gil has had a shot in 16 straight games and Dor Turgeman in 12. Peyton Miller has had two or more shots in eight in a row.
In the Eastern Conference, New England are 4th on 46 points from 28 games. Cincinnati are 9th on 36 points from 27.
Cincinnati: Louro; Smith, Robinson, Hadebe, Malacia; Nwobodo, Bucha, Gidi; Valenzuela; Barlow, Denkey. New England: Turner; Polster, Kohler, Sands, Wynder; Yueill, Raines, Gil; Langoni, Turgeman, Miller.