Brentford sit 8th on 51 points. Palace are 15th on 44. This is a mid-table Premier League Sunday afternoon – the kind of game that doesn’t look much on paper but consistently delivers. Statz projects Brentford at 1.86 goals and 4.63 SOT at home. Palace project 1.14 goals and 3.19 SOT. The Bees are the team to be on here.
Brentford line up with Kelleher; Kayode, Collins, Ajer, Lewis-Potter; Yarmolyuk, Jensen, Henderson; Damsgaard; Ouattara and Igor Thiago leading the line. Solid across the park.
Palace go with Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Munoz, Mitchell; Canvot, Lerma, Hughes, Kamada; Pino and Mateta or Sarr. Palace’s form reads WLWDWDLLDL – patchy, but not without quality.
Igor Thiago is the standout number here – 2.75 shots and 1.39 SOT projected. That’s the highest goal projection in this game at 0.74. He’s been Brentford’s main threat all season and this matchup looks kind for him.
Dango Ouattara gives you pace and directness from wide – 2.25 shots and 0.79 SOT projected. Kevin Schade is another option at 1.92 shots and 0.82 SOT. Brentford have genuine attacking depth.
For Palace, Ismaila Sarr is the danger man with 1.91 shots and 0.82 SOT projected. Jean-Philippe Mateta contributes 1.81 shots and 0.74 SOT – Palace’s two-pronged attack can hurt anyone. Brentford’s form reads LWDDDDDLWL – too many draws but a side that knows how to grind out results at home.
The Statz Bet Builder highlights a 6.24x combined build for this one via Ladbrokes:
Get the full legs and hit rates at statz.ai/bet-builder-tool.
Referee Samuel Barrott averages 3.78 yellows and 19.61 fouls per game across 23 matches this season. With both sides projected to commit fouls – Palace at 8.76 and Brentford at 6.77 – there should be cards in this one. Igor Thiago’s 2.40 fouls per game over the last 10 makes him one to watch for disciplinary markets too.
Full Premier League projections and Brentford vs Palace H2H data available on Statz.