Barcelona start the season as the model's champions: 53.8% in our La Liga projection, the best attack in the division, and a first assignment at Elche, who the same model expects to spend the year in a six-club scrap to stay up.
You know how this is supposed to go. So does the market, which is the problem with betting on it.
Kickoff is 8:30pm UK on Sunday. Numbers from the live Statz match centre.
As with all La Liga fixtures, Statz does not publish a predicted XI the way it does for the Premier League, so the names below are the players our props board expects to be involved rather than a confirmed team sheet.
Barcelona's expected group includes Joan GarcÃa in goal, Koundé, Eric GarcÃa and Balde across the back, Marc Bernal and FermÃn López in midfield, with Lamine Yamal and Raphinha providing the width. Elche are expected to feature Dituro, Affengruber, Chust, Sangaré and Valera.
No confirmed absences have been published for either side at the time of writing.
Barcelona's closing five read WWLWL, Elche's DLWDD. The projections are emphatic: 2.21 goals to 1.00, with Elche given a 10.9% chance of a clean sheet, one of the lowest numbers on the weekend's board anywhere in Europe.
Barcelona win this in 64.3% of simulations. Elche take it in 15.2%, which is a bigger number than a 9.00 price suggests.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Marc Bernal to be carded at 3.75 is the standout, and it is not close: a 32.3% projection is the highest on either side's board. A young midfielder holding the middle of the pitch while his side chases the ball for long spells is a booking waiting to happen, and Elche will be running at him.
Eric GarcÃa at 5.50 is the same argument at a bigger price. Beyond that the board leans on fouls markets from our commentary-parsed data, which are noisier than the cards and shots lines and are worth treating as softer evidence.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Barcelona at 1.30 implies a 77% chance. The model says 64.3%. Over 2.5 at 1.44 implies 69% against a 62.3% projection. Both teams to score at 1.75 is the closest thing to a fair price in the game, and even that is a shade the wrong side of the line.
Which leaves one number the model genuinely likes, and it is the one nobody wants: Elche at 9.00, where a 15.2% chance is being sold as an 11.1% one. That is a real edge on a bet that loses six times out of seven.
The bet: no bet on the result, and a small one on Elche at 9.00 if you must.
I am not going to talk you into a 9.00 shot on the opening weekend, and I am certainly not going to talk you into 1.30 about a side that lost two of its last five. Some games are priced so that the honest answer is to watch them.
If you want an angle rather than a bet, Marc Bernal's card at 3.75 is the soundest number on the board and has nothing to do with who wins.