Burnley vs Man City Predictions and Betting Tips – 22 April 2026
Man City rock up to Turf Moor as the Premier League title race ticks on – and the numbers make this one look very one-sided. Burnley are 19th on 20 points, one win in their last ten, and have shipped 23 goals in that stretch. City are second on 67 points, unbeaten in their last ten (W7 D3), with 20 scored and just eight conceded. Statz projections have the final score at Burnley 0.83 – 2.95 Man City. Not a contest on paper.
Lineups and Player News
Statz has predicted lineups confirmed for both sides ahead of this Premier League midweek fixture. Both managers are expected to name full-strength XIs with no significant absences flagged in the data.
Recent Form
Burnley have been dismal over their last ten – W1 D2 L7, 9 scored and 23 conceded. They sit 19th in the table with a goal difference of -33 and look increasingly doomed to the drop. That one win feels like a blip rather than a turning point.
Man City have been relentless – W7 D3 L0 in their last ten, 20 goals scored and only eight conceded. They sit second on 67 points with a GD of +36. Erling Haaland leads the line with a projected 1.07 goals for this fixture, the highest individual output in the game according to Statz.
Player Stats to Watch
Zian Flemming is Burnley’s most active attacker in terms of shooting output, sitting top of their fouls charts with 22 on the season (2.20/game). His Statz projection of 0.33 goals is the highest at the club for this game, and his shot volume gives him a genuine platform for the SGP legs below.
For City, Jeremy Doku causes problems from wide with his direct running, while Bernardo Silva is influential in central areas and picks up fouls regularly – 1.6 per game on average according to Statz data.
Betting Angles
Referee Andrew Madley averages 23.12 fouls and 3.71 yellows per game – fairly standard output. With a relegation-threatened side hosting a title contender, expect intensity in the midfield battle. The Statz bet builder tool highlights four strong SGP legs for this one:
- Zian Flemming – Shots on Target 1+ | 100% hit rate (1.4 avg SOT) | Last 5: W/W/W/W/W | 1.85 (Stake)
- Bernardo Silva – Fouls 1+ | 100% hit rate (1.6 avg fouls) | Last 5: W/W/W/W/W | 1.48 (Coral)
- Nico Gonzalez – Fouls 1+ | 100% hit rate (2.2 avg fouls) | Last 5: W/W/W/W/W | 1.40 (Coral)
- Jeremy Doku – Shots on Target 1+ | 80% hit rate (1.0 avg SOT) | Last 5: W/W/L/W/W | 1.85 (Stake)
Combined odds: ~7.09
Summary
This is a mismatch on virtually every metric. City win here with something to spare. The SGP anchored by Flemming shots on target, Silva and Gonzalez fouls, and Doku shots lands at a tasty ~7.09. All four legs have 80-100% hit rates on Statz data. Worth a small stake on the bet builder. Check the full fixture breakdown on the Burnley vs Man City H2H page.
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