Nobody plans to be here, but there is plenty left to play for. France and England meet in Saturday's World Cup third-place playoff two days after their semi-final exits — France shut out 2-0 by Spain, England edged 2-1 by Argentina. Between them they have scored 41 goals in their last 20 matches, and the small matter of the Golden Boot could be settled here: Kylian Mbappé kicks off level with Lionel Messi on eight, a full day before Messi plays the final.
Kick-off is 10pm UK time on Saturday. Every projection and market for this one is live on Statz projections until kick-off.
Confirmed teams are not yet available, and third-place playoffs bring the extra wrinkle of rotation — treat the XIs below as the semi-final baselines rather than firm predictions. We will update this preview when the official sheets drop, roughly an hour before kick-off.
France's semi-final XI lined up with Mike Maignan in goal; Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba and Lucas Digne across the back; Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni in midfield; and Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé behind Kylian Mbappé.
England went with Jordan Pickford; Djed Spence, Marc Guéhi, John Stones and Reece James in defence; Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice at the base; Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham and Morgan Rogers in support of Harry Kane. The Statz model also rates Ollie Watkins highly for this one (see the Bet Builder below), so expect at least some fresh legs in both attacks.
France arrive having won eight of their last ten, scoring 23 and conceding 8 across that run. The route through the knockouts read 1-0 over Paraguay, 2-0 against Morocco in the quarter-final, and then the 0-2 semi-final defeat to Spain on 14 July — only the second time in ten games they have failed to score. Full France form and stats on Statz.
England's last ten show seven wins, a draw and two defeats, 18 scored and 9 conceded. They beat Mexico 3-2, knocked out Norway 2-1 in the quarter-final, and pushed Argentina all the way in Wednesday's 1-2 semi-final defeat. Both of England's losses in this run came against the two teams contesting Sunday's final. Full England stats on Statz.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The Golden Boot subplot runs straight through this game. Mbappé has 8 goals in 5 appearances at this World Cup — 1.6 per game, level with Messi at the top of the chart — and the Statz model hands him monster numbers for Saturday: 4.18 projected shots, 1.93 on target and 0.64 goals, comfortably the highest on the card. Kane and Bellingham both sit on 6, so either Englishman needs a big night to gatecrash the race.
England's volume threats have been remarkably steady. Kane has hit 1+ shot on target in four of his last five, averaging 1.6 total shots per game, while Watkins has landed 2+ shots in five straight at an average of 3.2 — the kind of run that usually only survives while nobody is watching. In midfield, Rabiot leads France's tournament foul count with 14 at 1.4 per game, and the tackle projections pair Tchouaméni (2.78) with Elliot Anderson (2.75) as the men most likely to live in the referee's notebook.
No referee has been assigned yet — worth re-checking the card markets once that news lands.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The market makes France favourites at 1.91 with bet365 at the time of writing, with England and the draw both out at 3.80. The totals lines tell the real story of how this fixture is being read: Over 2.5 goals is just 1.44 and both teams to score the same 1.44 — short prices that fit two attacks carrying 41 goals across their last 20 games into a match with nothing to defend.
The Statz Bet Builder above leans into that openness: Rabiot 1+ shot (100% hit rate over his last five), Watkins 2+ shots (also five from five, averaging 3.2), Digne 1+ foul committed (five from five) and Kane 1+ shot on target (four of five) combined at 2.85 with bet365 when the model priced it.
The Mbappé angle is the marquee play. His 4.18 projected shots and 1.93 on target are the biggest attacking numbers the model has produced for either side, and with the Golden Boot on the line a day before Messi plays, the anytime-scorer and shots markets around him are where the value conversation starts.
Third-place playoffs reward the team that still wants to play, and the numbers suggest both of these do — 23 and 18 goals respectively across their last ten, a totals line at 1.44, and the tournament's joint-top scorer projected for more than four shots. France's extra firepower makes them the rightful favourites, but England have scored in nine of their last ten and pushed the world's form team to the wire on Wednesday.
Goals is the lean rather than the result: both teams to score, the over, and Mbappé's shot volume are the plays the data backs. The four-leg Statz Bet Builder above pays 2.85 if the form holds. Check the live numbers on the France vs England H2H page before Saturday's 10pm UK kick-off.