The tournament's best attack meets the tournament's best defence. France have scored 16 goals in six games in North America and lead the World Cup for shots on target per game. Spain have conceded exactly once all tournament — the best defensive record of all 48 teams — and arrive unbeaten in ten. Something has to give in this semi-final, and the numbers say it might not give by much.
Kick-off at Dallas Stadium is 8pm UK time on Tuesday night. You can track every projection and market for this one on Statz projections right up to kick-off.
Confirmed lineups are not yet available — the XIs below are the predicted teams and we will update this preview once the official sheets drop, roughly an hour before kick-off.
France are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1: Mike Maignan in goal behind a back four of Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba and Lucas Digne. Manu Koné and Adrien Rabiot screen the defence, with Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué supporting Kylian Mbappé up top. That is four genuine attacking threats on the pitch at once.
Spain mirror the shape: Unai Simón in goal; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte and Marc Cucurella across the back; Rodri alongside Pedri in the engine room; and Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo and Álex Baena feeding Mikel Oyarzabal. It is the settled core that has carried Spain through the tournament without ever looking stretched.
France's tournament has been close to flawless. Their last five are all wins — 3-0 against Iraq, 4-1 away to Norway, 3-0 over Sweden, a 1-0 grind past Paraguay, and a 2-0 quarter-final win over Morocco on 9 July. That is 13 scored and one conceded across the run. At 2.67 goals per game they rank 4th of 48 at this World Cup, and their 7.83 shots on target per game is the most of any side left in it. Full France form and stats on Statz.
Spain's route has been quieter but just as ruthless: 4-0 against Saudi Arabia, 1-0 over Uruguay, 3-0 against Austria, 1-0 past Portugal, and a 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium on 10 July — the only goal they have conceded in six games. Five clean sheets from six is the best rate in the tournament, and both teams have scored in just 17% of Spain's matches, the second-lowest figure of all 48 teams. Full Spain stats on Statz.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Kylian Mbappé is the man in form. He has landed 1+ shot on target in six straight games — priced at just 1.11 with bet365 — has managed 2+ total shots in all six of those, and has scored in three consecutive matches coming into this one. Ousmane Dembélé is quietly matching the volume, with 2+ shots in five straight at 1.36.
Spain's threats are spread wider. Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal have each hit the target in three straight games (1.25 and 1.40 respectively for another), while the deeper numbers favour the foul markets: Pedro Porro and Pau Cubarsí have both committed a foul in four consecutive matches, and on the French side Dayot Upamecano has fouled in six straight — a run priced at 1.50 to continue.
The referee matters here too. Ivan Barton has taken charge of three games at this tournament, averaging 34.3 fouls and 3.67 yellow cards per match — a card-happy profile for a tie between two of the competition's cleaner sides (France average just 0.67 cards per game, 44th of 48; Spain 0.83).
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The market makes France narrow favourites at 2.35 with bet365, with the draw at 3.25 and Spain at 3.20 — about as tight as a semi-final gets. The Statz model projects 1.24 goals for France and 1.21 for Spain, a combined total of around 2.45 that sits right on the Over 2.5 line, currently 1.91.
The cleaner lean is in the both-teams-to-score market. BTTS Yes is priced at 1.67, but the underlying rates push the other way: both teams have scored in only 17% of Spain's tournament games and 33% of France's, and the two sides rank 1st and 4th for clean-sheet rate. If you side with the defences, No looks the value side of that coin.
On player props, Mbappé's shots-on-target run against the only defence yet to be seriously tested is the marquee angle — his 2+ shots on target leg (100% hit rate over the last five, averaging 3 per game) headlines the Statz Bet Builder above at 1.53. And with Ivan Barton's 3.67 yellows per game in the middle, the foul streaks of Upamecano (1.50) and Porro (1.25) give the card-and-foul markets genuine backbone.
France's firepower has been the most reliable thing at this World Cup — top for shots on target, 16 goals in six games, Mbappé scoring in three straight. But Spain simply do not concede: one goal against in six matches and five clean sheets. The market can barely separate them, and the projections agree, with a combined 2.45 goals pointing to a tight, tactical night in Dallas.
France to edge it is the lean, but the stronger plays are underneath the match result: the data leans against both teams scoring, Mbappé on target is the most dependable prop on the card, and the four-leg Statz Bet Builder above pays 4.10 if the form holds. Check the live numbers at the France vs Spain H2H page before the 8pm UK kick-off on Tuesday.