Holstein Kiel xG 2024/2025

Kiel expected goals 2024/2025: 2024/2025

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 39.93
Goals scored: 49
Goals minus xG: +9.07
Expected goals against (xGA): 65.46
Goals conceded: 80
xGA minus goals conceded: -14.54
Expected points (xPts): 33.11
Points: 25
Points minus xPts: -8.11
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Are Kiel overperforming their expected goals?

Kiel have taken 8.1 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: +9.1 goals against their xG, and -14.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Kiel results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
24/25	34	39.93	49	+9.07	65.46	80	-14.54	33.11	25	-8.11
Last 10	10	11.28	14	+2.72	19.37	21	-1.63	9.30	9	-0.30
Last 5	5	6.17	9	+2.83	11.41	10	+1.41	4.23	7	+2.77
Home	17	19.36	24	+4.64	30.90	41	-10.10	17.13	14	-3.13
Away	17	20.57	25	+4.43	34.56	39	-4.44	15.98	11	-4.98

Kiel expected goals match by match, 2024/2025

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
17 May	Bundesliga	Dortmund (A)	3-0	0.57	2.65	0.30	0	L
10 May	Bundesliga	Freiburg (H)	1-2	0.95	1.49	0.99	0	L
4 May	Bundesliga	Augsburg (A)	1-3	1.45	3.63	0.45	3	L
26 Apr	Bundesliga	Gladbach (H)	4-3	2.07	1.70	1.61	3	W
19 Apr	Bundesliga	RB Leipzig (A)	1-1	1.13	1.94	0.88	1	L
12 Apr	Bundesliga	St. Pauli (H)	1-2	0.49	1.94	0.45	0	L
5 Apr	Bundesliga	Mainz (A)	1-1	1.37	1.90	1.06	1	L
29 Mar	Bundesliga	Bremen (H)	0-3	0.86	1.85	0.73	0	L
16 Mar	Bundesliga	Heidenheim (A)	3-1	1.34	1.46	1.30	0	L
8 Mar	Bundesliga	Stuttgart (H)	2-2	1.05	0.81	1.53	1	W
2 Mar	Bundesliga	U Berlin (A)	0-1	1.43	1.69	1.21	3	L
22 Feb	Bundesliga	Leverkusen (H)	0-2	0.12	1.80	0.24	0	L
16 Feb	Bundesliga	Frankfurt (A)	3-1	0.87	2.53	0.48	0	L
9 Feb	Bundesliga	Bochum (H)	2-2	1.88	3.18	0.78	1	L
1 Feb	Bundesliga	Bayern (A)	4-3	1.83	2.89	0.86	0	L
24 Jan	Bundesliga	Wolfsburg (A)	2-2	0.27	2.03	0.28	1	L
18 Jan	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim (H)	1-3	1.45	1.22	1.53	0	W
14 Jan	Bundesliga	Dortmund (H)	4-2	1.26	1.32	1.33	3	L
11 Jan	Bundesliga	Freiburg (A)	3-2	1.86	0.96	1.98	0	W
21 Dec	Bundesliga	Augsburg (H)	5-1	2.07	1.97	1.45	3	W
14 Dec	Bundesliga	Gladbach (A)	4-1	0.63	2.25	0.44	0	L
7 Dec	Bundesliga	RB Leipzig (H)	0-2	1.60	1.64	1.36	0	L
29 Nov	Bundesliga	St. Pauli (A)	3-1	1.58	1.31	1.56	0	W
24 Nov	Bundesliga	Mainz (H)	0-3	0.54	2.36	0.36	0	L
9 Nov	Bundesliga	Bremen (A)	2-1	0.63	2.07	0.50	0	L
2 Nov	Bundesliga	Heidenheim (H)	1-0	1.44	1.08	1.62	3	W
26 Oct	Bundesliga	Stuttgart (A)	2-1	0.50	1.20	0.78	0	L
20 Oct	Bundesliga	U Berlin (H)	0-2	1.16	1.14	1.37	0	W
5 Oct	Bundesliga	Leverkusen (A)	2-2	1.84	1.87	1.38	1	L
29 Sep	Bundesliga	Frankfurt (H)	2-4	1.20	2.76	0.58	0	L

Kiel players: goals against expected goals, 2024/2025

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Alexander Bernhardsson	attacker	19	1270	3.12	7	+3.88	0.22
Shuto Machino	attacker	32	1960	7.22	11	+3.78	0.33
Armin Gigovic	midfielder	31	1906	1.71	5	+3.29	0.08
Phil Harres	attacker	26	1544	5.82	8	+2.18	0.34
Steven Skrzybski	midfielder	24	1325	3.90	6	+2.10	0.26
David Zec	defender	18	1545	1.02	2	+0.98	0.06
Lasse Rosenboom	defender	26	1737	1.76	2	+0.24	0.09
Andu Yobel Kelati	attacker	8	312	0.81	1	+0.19	0.23
Finn Porath	midfielder	31	1970	1.86	2	+0.14	0.08
Patrick Erras	midfielder	10	834	0.97	1	+0.03	0.11
Max Geschwill	defender	19	1281	1.07	1	-0.07	0.08
Lewis Holtby	midfielder	25	1262	0.60	0	-0.60	0.04
Magnus Knudsen	midfielder	31	1854	0.69	0	-0.69	0.03
Benedikt Pichler	attacker	18	784	1.82	1	-0.82	0.21
Marko Ivezić	defender	23	1656	0.90	0	-0.90	0.05
Fiete Arp	midfielder	23	695	3.22	2	-1.22	0.42
Timo Becker	defender	30	2449	1.32	0	-1.32	0.05
Nicolai Remberg	midfielder	32	2412	1.66	0	-1.66	0.06

Bundesliga 2024/2025: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	34	59.5	72	37.6	43	59.1	69	+9.9
2	RB Leipzig	33	46.9	52	54.5	43	42.3	51	+8.7
3	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	46.5	55	65.4	57	37.3	45	+7.7
4	SC Freiburg	34	48.5	49	47.1	53	48.1	55	+6.9
5	FC Bayern München	33	76.8	94	24.7	31	73.3	79	+5.7
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	61.7	68	49.6	46	55.8	60	+4.2
7	FSV Mainz 05	34	50.5	55	49.8	43	48.4	52	+3.6
8	Werder Bremen	34	50.5	54	49.7	57	48.2	51	+2.8
9	FC Augsburg	34	38	35	51.2	51	40.3	43	+2.7
10	VfL Wolfsburg	34	49.5	56	54.1	54	44.8	43	-1.8
11	Borussia Dortmund	34	65.5	71	41.9	51	59.5	57	-2.5
12	FC Union Berlin	34	41.4	35	48.2	51	43.2	40	-3.2
13	VfB Stuttgart	34	63.8	64	44.6	53	57.2	50	-7.2
14	TSG Hoffenheim	34	45.5	46	57.3	68	39.9	32	-7.9
15	Holstein Kiel	34	39.9	49	65.4	80	33.1	25	-8.1
16	St. Pauli	34	36	28	45.9	41	41.2	32	-9.2
17	Heidenheim	34	42.4	37	57	64	38.8	29	-9.8
18	VfL Bochum 1848	34	44.5	33	63.5	67	36.4	25	-11.4