VfL Wolfsburg xG 2025/2026

Wolfsburg expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 47.36
Goals scored: 45
Goals minus xG: -2.36
Expected goals against (xGA): 64.32
Goals conceded: 69
xGA minus goals conceded: -4.68
Expected points (xPts): 38.61
Points: 29
Points minus xPts: -9.61
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Are Wolfsburg overperforming their expected goals?

Wolfsburg have taken 9.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: -2.4 goals against their xG, and -4.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Wolfsburg results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	47.36	45	-2.36	64.32	69	-4.68	38.61	29	-9.61
Last 10	10	17.04	12	-5.04	16.94	16	+0.94	14.05	9	-5.05
Last 5	5	9.12	6	-3.12	7.75	4	+3.75	7.46	8	+0.54
Home	17	26.90	21	-5.90	28.69	32	-3.31	22.80	10	-12.80
Away	17	20.46	24	+3.54	35.63	37	-1.37	15.81	19	+3.19

Wolfsburg expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
16 May	Bundesliga	St. Pauli (A)	1-3	3.46	1.62	2.27	3	W
9 May	Bundesliga	Bayern (H)	0-1	2.75	2.25	1.66	0	W
3 May	Bundesliga	Freiburg (A)	1-1	1.06	1.19	1.26	1	L
25 Apr	Bundesliga	Gladbach (H)	0-0	1.64	0.75	2.00	1	W
18 Apr	Bundesliga	U Berlin (A)	1-2	0.21	1.94	0.27	3	L
11 Apr	Bundesliga	Frankfurt (H)	1-2	2.60	0.88	2.37	0	W
4 Apr	Bundesliga	Leverkusen (A)	6-3	1.83	4.09	0.48	0	L
21 Mar	Bundesliga	Bremen (H)	0-1	0.94	0.38	1.82	0	W
14 Mar	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim (A)	1-1	0.37	1.92	0.37	1	L
7 Mar	Bundesliga	Hamburg (H)	1-2	2.18	1.92	1.55	0	W
1 Mar	Bundesliga	Stuttgart (A)	4-0	1.01	3.64	0.28	0	L
21 Feb	Bundesliga	Augsburg (H)	2-3	1.64	1.87	1.25	0	L
15 Feb	Bundesliga	RB Leipzig (A)	2-2	0.65	2.82	0.30	1	L
7 Feb	Bundesliga	Dortmund (H)	1-2	1.17	1.80	0.97	0	L
30 Jan	Bundesliga	Koln (A)	1-0	1.29	1.13	1.48	0	W
24 Jan	Bundesliga	Mainz (A)	3-1	1.08	3.51	0.33	0	L
17 Jan	Bundesliga	Heidenheim (H)	1-1	1.13	1.11	1.37	1	W
14 Jan	Bundesliga	St. Pauli (H)	2-1	1.91	1.84	1.43	3	W
11 Jan	Bundesliga	Bayern (A)	8-1	0.92	2.33	0.57	0	L
20 Dec	Bundesliga	Freiburg (H)	3-4	1.08	3.77	0.28	0	L
13 Dec	Bundesliga	Gladbach (A)	1-3	1.64	1.12	1.73	3	W
6 Dec	Bundesliga	U Berlin (H)	3-1	0.88	2.18	0.61	3	L
30 Nov	Bundesliga	Frankfurt (A)	1-1	1.46	1.88	1.13	1	L
22 Nov	Bundesliga	Leverkusen (H)	1-3	2.22	0.77	2.29	0	W
7 Nov	Bundesliga	Bremen (A)	2-1	0.66	1.64	0.69	0	L
2 Nov	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim (H)	2-3	0.85	1.46	0.93	0	L
25 Oct	Bundesliga	Hamburg (A)	0-1	0.57	3.17	0.21	3	L
18 Oct	Bundesliga	Stuttgart (H)	0-3	0.46	1.63	0.54	0	L
4 Oct	Bundesliga	Augsburg (A)	3-1	1.32	1.69	1.14	0	L
27 Sep	Bundesliga	RB Leipzig (H)	0-1	2.82	2.56	1.54	0	W

Wolfsburg players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Dzenan Pejcinovic	attacker	30	1456	6.76	8	+1.24	0.42
Konstantinos Koulierakis	defender	29	2480	2.91	4	+1.09	0.11
Aaron Zehnter	defender	20	1462	1.24	2	+0.76	0.08
Patrick Wimmer	attacker	25	1635	3.25	4	+0.75	0.18
Andreas Skov Olsen	attacker	8	367	0.34	1	+0.66	0.08
Jonas Wind	attacker	11	480	1.37	2	+0.63	0.26
Mattias Svanberg	midfielder	24	854	2.54	3	+0.46	0.27
Maximilian Arnold	midfielder	25	1854	0.63	1	+0.37	0.03
Moritz Jenz	defender	22	1789	0.69	1	+0.31	0.03
Mohamed Amoura	attacker	30	1929	7.92	8	+0.08	0.37
Joakim Maehle	defender	16	1246	1.08	1	-0.08	0.08
Denis Vavro	defender	17	1188	1.14	1	-0.14	0.09
Kento Shiogai	attacker	12	311	1.34	1	-0.34	0.39
Yannick Gerhardt	midfielder	19	1071	1.39	1	-0.39	0.12
Adam Daghim	attacker	27	1356	2.56	2	-0.56	0.17
Vinicius de Souza Costa	midfielder	24	1773	0.69	0	-0.69	0.04
Jesper Lindstrøm	attacker	13	375	0.82	0	-0.82	0.20
Lovro Majer	midfielder	28	1376	3.43	2	-1.43	0.22
Christian Eriksen	midfielder	31	2422	5.80	3	-2.80	0.22

Bundesliga 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	FC Bayern München	34	91.9	122	41.6	36	72.3	89	+16.7
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	62.1	70	42.5	34	56.9	73	+16.1
3	VfB Stuttgart	34	61.3	71	52.5	49	53.6	62	+8.4
4	TSG Hoffenheim	34	58.2	65	49.6	52	53.7	61	+7.3
5	RB Leipzig	34	70.3	66	48.2	47	59.5	65	+5.5
6	FC Augsburg	34	47.1	45	62.7	61	39.6	43	+3.4
7	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	34	65.1	68	47.7	47	55.7	59	+3.3
8	SC Freiburg	34	51.4	51	51.7	57	46.1	47	+0.9
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	45.8	61	51	65	44.5	44	-0.5
10	Hamburger SV	34	44.7	40	61.6	54	38.6	38	-0.6
11	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	45.9	42	51.4	53	43.2	38	-5.2
12	St. Pauli	34	33.6	29	56.6	60	33	26	-7
13	FSV Mainz 05	34	53.6	44	56	53	47.3	40	-7.3
14	FC Union Berlin	34	46.5	44	50.3	58	46.3	39	-7.3
15	Werder Bremen	34	41.2	37	53.8	60	41.2	32	-9.2
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	47.4	45	64.3	69	38.6	29	-9.6
17	FC Köln	34	50.6	49	56.6	63	43	32	-11
18	Heidenheim	34	46.3	41	65	72	37.2	26	-11.2