St. Pauli xG 2025/2026

St. Pauli expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 33.62
Goals scored: 29
Goals minus xG: -4.62
Expected goals against (xGA): 56.66
Goals conceded: 60
xGA minus goals conceded: -3.34
Expected points (xPts): 32.99
Points: 26
Points minus xPts: -6.99
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Are St. Pauli overperforming their expected goals?

St. Pauli have taken 7.0 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: -4.6 goals against their xG, and -3.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

St. Pauli results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	33.62	29	-4.62	56.66	60	-3.34	32.99	26	-6.99
Last 10	10	9.80	6	-3.80	19.45	20	-0.55	8.30	3	-5.30
Last 5	5	5.78	4	-1.78	10.89	10	+0.89	4.05	1	-3.05
Home	17	19.21	17	-2.21	27.72	31	-3.28	18.82	17	-1.82
Away	17	14.41	12	-2.41	28.94	29	-0.06	14.17	9	-5.17

St. Pauli expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
16 May	Bundesliga	Wolfsburg (H)	1-3	1.62	3.46	0.56	0	L
9 May	Bundesliga	RB Leipzig (A)	2-1	0.65	2.23	0.45	0	L
3 May	Bundesliga	Mainz (H)	1-2	0.99	2.02	0.75	0	L
25 Apr	Bundesliga	Heidenheim (A)	2-0	0.85	1.63	0.83	0	L
17 Apr	Bundesliga	Koln (H)	1-1	1.67	1.55	1.46	1	W
11 Apr	Bundesliga	Bayern (H)	0-5	0.61	3.19	0.21	0	L
5 Apr	Bundesliga	U Berlin (A)	1-1	0.39	1.72	0.45	1	L
22 Mar	Bundesliga	Freiburg (H)	1-2	1.79	2.29	1.11	0	L
13 Mar	Bundesliga	Gladbach (A)	2-0	0.64	0.69	1.26	0	D
8 Mar	Bundesliga	Frankfurt (H)	0-0	0.59	0.67	1.22	1	D
28 Feb	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim (A)	0-1	0.81	2.84	0.37	3	L
22 Feb	Bundesliga	Bremen (H)	2-1	0.41	1.62	0.50	3	L
14 Feb	Bundesliga	Leverkusen (A)	4-0	0.65	1.65	0.67	0	L
7 Feb	Bundesliga	Stuttgart (H)	2-1	1.90	0.62	2.25	3	W
31 Jan	Bundesliga	Augsburg (A)	2-1	2.55	0.98	2.30	0	W
27 Jan	Bundesliga	RB Leipzig (H)	1-1	1.23	1.45	1.22	1	L
23 Jan	Bundesliga	Hamburg (H)	0-0	0.31	0.37	1.15	1	D
17 Jan	Bundesliga	Dortmund (A)	3-2	0.89	2.53	0.49	0	L
14 Jan	Bundesliga	Wolfsburg (A)	2-1	1.84	1.91	1.35	0	L
21 Dec	Bundesliga	Mainz (A)	0-0	0.28	1.58	0.42	1	L
13 Dec	Bundesliga	Heidenheim (H)	2-1	0.95	2.36	0.58	3	L
6 Dec	Bundesliga	Koln (A)	1-1	0.17	1.70	0.30	1	L
29 Nov	Bundesliga	Bayern (A)	3-1	0.58	2.19	0.43	0	L
23 Nov	Bundesliga	U Berlin (H)	0-1	0.73	0.44	1.57	0	D
9 Nov	Bundesliga	Freiburg (A)	2-1	0.55	1.32	0.76	0	L
1 Nov	Bundesliga	Gladbach (H)	0-4	0.94	2.70	0.47	0	L
25 Oct	Bundesliga	Frankfurt (A)	2-0	0.40	1.79	0.44	0	L
19 Oct	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim (H)	0-3	0.77	1.85	0.67	0	L
4 Oct	Bundesliga	Bremen (A)	1-0	0.97	1.80	0.83	0	L
27 Sep	Bundesliga	Leverkusen (H)	1-2	0.83	0.89	1.28	0	L

St. Pauli players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Abdoulie Ceesay	attacker	20	317	1.42	3	+1.58	0.40
Hauke Wahl	defender	30	2592	0.64	2	+1.36	0.02
Eric Smith	defender	27	2313	0.69	2	+1.31	0.03
Nikola Vasilj	goalkeeper	34	3060	0.00	1	+1.00	0.00
Adam Dzwigala	defender	19	1292	0.22	1	+0.78	0.02
Manolis Saliakas	defender	17	1109	0.63	1	+0.37	0.05
Andréas Hountondji	attacker	21	1076	3.67	4	+0.33	0.31
Karol Mets	defender	23	1935	0.71	1	+0.29	0.03
Louis Oppie	defender	23	1616	0.96	1	+0.04	0.05
Martijn Kaars	attacker	29	1344	3.27	3	-0.27	0.22
James Sands	midfielder	24	1941	1.32	1	-0.32	0.06
Ricky-Jade Jones	attacker	9	349	2.37	2	-0.37	0.61
Danel Sinani	midfielder	30	2071	5.65	5	-0.65	0.25
Joel Chima Fujita	midfielder	32	2672	1.65	1	-0.65	0.06
Mathias Rasmussen	midfielder	13	693	0.79	0	-0.79	0.10
Connor Metcalfe	midfielder	25	575	0.83	0	-0.83	0.13
Arkadiusz Pyrka	defender	31	2582	1.20	0	-1.20	0.04
Jackson Irvine	midfielder	24	1625	1.88	0	-1.88	0.10
Mathias Pereira Lage	attacker	28	2034	4.42	2	-2.42	0.20

Bundesliga 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	FC Bayern München	34	91.9	122	41.6	36	72.3	89	+16.7
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	62.1	70	42.5	34	56.9	73	+16.1
3	VfB Stuttgart	34	61.3	71	52.5	49	53.6	62	+8.4
4	TSG Hoffenheim	34	58.2	65	49.6	52	53.7	61	+7.3
5	RB Leipzig	34	70.3	66	48.2	47	59.5	65	+5.5
6	FC Augsburg	34	47.1	45	62.7	61	39.6	43	+3.4
7	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	34	65.1	68	47.7	47	55.7	59	+3.3
8	SC Freiburg	34	51.4	51	51.7	57	46.1	47	+0.9
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	45.8	61	51	65	44.5	44	-0.5
10	Hamburger SV	34	44.7	40	61.6	54	38.6	38	-0.6
11	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	45.9	42	51.4	53	43.2	38	-5.2
12	St. Pauli	34	33.6	29	56.6	60	33	26	-7
13	FSV Mainz 05	34	53.6	44	56	53	47.3	40	-7.3
14	FC Union Berlin	34	46.5	44	50.3	58	46.3	39	-7.3
15	Werder Bremen	34	41.2	37	53.8	60	41.2	32	-9.2
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	47.4	45	64.3	69	38.6	29	-9.6
17	FC Köln	34	50.6	49	56.6	63	43	32	-11
18	Heidenheim	34	46.3	41	65	72	37.2	26	-11.2