Once Ethiopia have enough completed CAF World Cup Qualifiers matches with expected goals (xG) data, per-game averages and player leaders will publish here. The match-by-match table above updates after every game.
Use the match-by-match table above to compare expected goals (xG) game by game, with home and away filters ahead of Ethiopia vs Mozambique on 11.11.2026.
Use the Home / Away filter above the data table to compare Ethiopia's expected goals (xG) totals and per-game averages split by venue across 2026.
Ethiopia's results and their chances agree, within 1.1 points of xPts over 9 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 9 | 9 | 8.74 | 9 | +0.26 | 14.25 | 14 | +0.25 | 9.12 | 8 | -1.12 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.56 | 8 | +3.44 | 8.60 | 8 | +0.60 | 4.38 | 6 | +1.62 |
| Home | 4 | 4.94 | 7 | +2.06 | 7.16 | 6 | +1.16 | 4.22 | 6 | +1.78 |
| Away | 5 | 3.80 | 2 | -1.80 | 7.09 | 8 | -0.91 | 4.90 | 2 | -2.90 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Burkina Faso (A) | 3-1 | 0.81 | 2.56 | 0.44 | 0 | L |
| 8 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Guinea-Bissau (H) | 1-0 | 0.90 | 1.05 | 1.23 | 3 | L |
| 9 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Sierra Leone (A) | 2-0 | 0.45 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Egypt (A) | 2-0 | 0.66 | 2.36 | 0.42 | 0 | L |
| 24 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Djibouti (H) | 6-1 | 1.74 | 1.68 | 1.42 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Egypt (H) | 0-2 | 0.95 | 2.54 | 0.52 | 0 | L |
| 9 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Djibouti (A) | 1-1 | 1.33 | 0.88 | 1.70 | 1 | W |
| 6 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Guinea-Bissau (A) | 0-0 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 1.47 | 1 | D |
| 21 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Burkina Faso (H) | 0-3 | 1.35 | 1.89 | 1.05 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bereket Desta | attacker | 6 | 406 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Biniam Ayten | midfielder | 4 | 111 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramkel James | defender | 6 | 540 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |