Once Nigeria have enough completed CAF World Cup Qualifiers matches with expected goals (xG) data, per-game averages and player leaders will publish here. The match-by-match table above updates after every game.
Use the match-by-match table above to compare expected goals (xG) game by game, with home and away filters ahead of Nigeria vs Tanzania on 11.11.2026.
Use the Home / Away filter above the data table to compare Nigeria's expected goals (xG) totals and per-game averages split by venue across 2026.
Nigeria have taken 1.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: +1.9 goals against their xG, and -1.4 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 10 | 15.08 | 17 | +1.92 | 7.58 | 9 | -1.42 | 18.56 | 17 | -1.56 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.21 | 12 | +4.79 | 3.64 | 3 | +0.64 | 9.17 | 13 | +3.83 |
| Home | 6 | 10.16 | 12 | +1.84 | 4.71 | 4 | +0.71 | 11.82 | 12 | +0.18 |
| Away | 4 | 4.92 | 5 | +0.08 | 2.87 | 5 | -2.13 | 6.74 | 5 | -1.74 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Gabon (H) | 4-1 | 1.72 | 0.88 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 14 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Benin (H) | 4-0 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.36 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Lesotho (A) | 1-2 | 2.19 | 0.55 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 9 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | South Africa (A) | 1-1 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 1.33 | 1 | D |
| 6 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Rwanda (H) | 1-0 | 1.67 | 0.64 | 2.11 | 3 | W |
| 25 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Zimbabwe (H) | 1-1 | 2.16 | 0.83 | 2.22 | 1 | W |
| 10 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Benin (A) | 2-1 | 1.01 | 0.90 | 1.43 | 0 | W |
| 7 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | South Africa (H) | 1-1 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 1.66 | 1 | W |
| 19 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Zimbabwe (A) | 1-1 | 1.03 | 0.76 | 1.56 | 1 | W |
| 16 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Lesotho (H) | 1-1 | 2.25 | 0.44 | 2.52 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen | attacker | 5 | 408 | 0.00 | 6 | +6.00 | 0.00 |
| Akor Adams | attacker | 3 | 185 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Semi Ajayi | defender | 6 | 441 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Frank Onyeka | midfielder | 5 | 218 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | attacker | 3 | 201 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Bassey | defender | 10 | 930 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | midfielder | 3 | 166 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Raphael Onyedika | midfielder | 3 | 112 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| William Troost-Ekong | defender | 5 | 240 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Tolu Arokodare | attacker | 6 | 194 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |