Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Finland win | 15.3% |
| 4-0 | Finland win | 13.7% |
| 2-0 | Finland win | 12.8% |
| 5-0 | Finland win | 9.8% |
| 1-0 | Finland win | 7.2% |
| 3-1 | Finland win | 5.1% |
| 4-1 | Finland win | 4.5% |
| 2-1 | Finland win | 4.2% |
| 5-1 | Finland win | 3.2% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 2.4% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 27% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% |
| Finland clean sheet | 72% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 3% |
The most likely score in Finland vs San Marino is 3-0, a 15% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 4-0 at 14%. The UEFA Nations League game kicks off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 15 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Finland 3.58 - 0.33 San Marino in goals for Finland vs San Marino, with over 2.5 goals 75% likely and both teams to score 27%.
Statz projects 22 players for Finland vs San Marino on Sunday 15 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 17:00 UK time kick-off.
Finland host San Marino at Bolt Arena, Helsinki on 15 November 2026 at 17:00 in the UEFA Nations League. Finland's last five results: W D W L L (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses). San Marino's last five: L L L L L (5 losses). In their last 3 meetings, Finland have won 3, San Marino 0, with 0 draws.
Finland vs San Marino kicks off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 15 November 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Bolt Arena, Helsinki. Bolt Arena holds 10,770 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 17:00.
Finland vs San Marino is being played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki on Sunday 15 November 2026, the home ground of Finland, which holds 10,770 people. Kick-off is at 17:00 UK time, and the match is part of the UEFA Nations League.
Finland have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 4, with results reading W D W L L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 0-2 defeat away to Albania in the UEFA Nations League on 12 November.
San Marino have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 games, scoring 1 and conceding 18, with results reading L L L L L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 0-2 defeat at home to Belarus in the UEFA Nations League on 12 November.
Across the last 3 meetings Finland have won 3, San Marino have won 0 and 0 were drawn, with Finland scoring 15 goals to San Marino's 1. The most recent was San Marino 0-7 Finland on 26 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Leo Walta leads Finland with 5 goals across their last 10 games, 0.5 a game, the most of any Finland player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Finland player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Nicolas Giacopetti leads San Marino with 3 yellow cards across their last 10 games, 0.3 a game, the most of any San Marino player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every San Marino player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Georgi Kabakov is the referee for Finland vs San Marino, averaging 19.5 fouls and 2.0 yellow cards per game across 2 games this season. That is 0.00 red cards a game, and the referee card on this page sets the record beside both teams' fouls and cards.
Statz predicts Finland vs San Marino with 11 starters a side: Finland line up 5-3-2 and San Marino 4-3-1-2, ahead of the 17:00 UK time kick-off on Sunday 15 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Finland the favourite with a 94% chance of winning, against 1% for San Marino and 5% for the draw. Projected goals are Finland 3.6 - 0.3 San Marino.
The most likely score in Finland vs San Marino is 3-0, a Finland win, at 15%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 27% likely and over 2.5 goals 75%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Finland vs San Marino, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | San Marino vs Finland | 0-7 |
| 20 Nov 2023 | Euro Qualification | San Marino vs Finland | 1-2 |
| 19 Jun 2023 | Euro Qualification | Finland vs San Marino | 6-0 |
Statz's projection model expects Finland 3.6 - 0.3 San Marino in goals. It gives Finland a 94% chance of winning, the draw 5% and San Marino 1%. Both teams to score is 27% likely, over 1.5 goals 90% and over 2.5 goals 75%. The most likely scorelines are 3-0 (15%), 4-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 5-0 (10%), 1-0 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Finland win | 15% |
| 4-0 | Finland win | 14% |
| 2-0 | Finland win | 13% |
| 5-0 | Finland win | 10% |
| 1-0 | Finland win | 7% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Finland vs San Marino, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Finland | Fouls committed | San Marino | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Markhiev | 10 | F. Fabbri | 10 |
| 2 | K. Kairinen | 10 | A. Golinucci | 9 |
| 3 | B. Källman | 9 | L. Capicchioni | 9 |
| 4 | V. Koski | 8 | S. Zannoni | 7 |
| 5 | A. Suhonen | 6 | G. Benvenuti | 6 |
| # | Finland | Shots | San Marino | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Walta | 24 | L. Capicchioni | 9 |
| 2 | J. Pohjanpalo | 16 | N. Nanni | 6 |
| 3 | T. Keskinen | 10 | S. Zannoni | 4 |
| 4 | A. Ståhl | 6 | G. Capicchioni | 3 |
| 5 | O. Antman | 5 | L. Lazzari | 3 |
| # | Finland | Shots on target | San Marino | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Walta | 8 | L. Capicchioni | 2 |
| 2 | J. Pohjanpalo | 7 | N. Nanni | 2 |
| 3 | O. Antman | 3 | N. Giacopetti | 1 |
| 4 | T. Pukki | 3 | A. Contadini | 1 |
| 5 | T. Keskinen | 3 | E. Balda | 1 |
| # | Finland | Goals | San Marino | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Walta | 5 | N. Giacopetti | 2 |
| 2 | J. Pohjanpalo | 4 | L. Lazzari | 1 |
| 3 | O. Antman | 1 | ||
| 4 | T. Pukki | 1 | ||
| 5 | N. Pyyhtiä | 1 |
| # | Finland | Yellow cards | San Marino | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Markhiev | 2 | N. Giacopetti | 3 |
| 2 | K. Kairinen | 2 | N. Nanni | 3 |
| 3 | L. Walta | 1 | F. Fabbri | 3 |
| 4 | S. Miettinen | 1 | A. Golinucci | 2 |
| 5 | B. Källman | 1 | S. Pancotti | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Finland vs San Marino: Robert Ivanov 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.53); Lorenzo Capicchioni 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.40); Adam Markhiev 1+ fouls (80% hit rate at 1.20). Combined odds 2.57 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.3 | 6 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0.8 | 19 of 54 |
| Shots | 14 | 23 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 3.8 | 33 of 54 |
| Fouls | 13.6 | 11 of 54 |
| Tackles | 13.6 | 32 of 54 |
| Passes | 597.6 | 7 of 54 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 23 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.2 | 52 of 54 |
| Goals against | 3.6 | 54 of 54 |
| Shots | 6 | 53 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 1.8 | 50 of 54 |
| Fouls | 14.4 | 8 of 54 |
| Tackles | 13.4 | 37 of 54 |
| Passes | 291.6 | 52 of 54 |
| Corners | 2.4 | 50 of 54 |