France host Italy at Stade de France, Paris on 2 October 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. France's last five results: W L L W W (3 wins and 2 losses). Italy's last five: D W W L W (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). In their last 2 meetings, France have won 1, Italy 1, with 0 draws.
France vs Italy kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 2 October 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Stade de France, Paris.
France vs Italy is being played at Stade de France in Paris, the home ground of France.
France's last five results read W L L W W (oldest to newest): 3 wins and 2 losses.
Italy's last five results read D W W L W (oldest to newest): 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Across the last 2 meetings France have won 1, Italy have won 1 and 0 were drawn. The most recent was Italy 1-3 France on 17 November 2024 in the UEFA Nations League.
Kylian Mbappé leads France with 11 goals across their last 10 games.
Pio Esposito leads Italy with 6 goals across their last 10 games.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for France and Italy are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes France the favourite with a 69% chance of winning, against 13% for Italy and 18% for the draw. Projected goals are France 2.3 - 0.9 Italy.
The most likely scoreline is 2-0, a France win, at 11%. Both teams to score is 54% likely and over 2.5 goals 63%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov 2024 | UEFA Nations League | Italy vs France | 1-3 |
| 6 Sep 2024 | UEFA Nations League | France vs Italy | 1-3 |
Statz's projection model expects France 2.3 - 0.9 Italy in goals. It gives France a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Italy 13%. Both teams to score is 54% likely, over 1.5 goals 83% and over 2.5 goals 63%. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | France win | 11% |
| 2-1 | France win | 10% |
| 1-0 | France win | 9% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 8% |
| 3-0 | France win | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for France vs Italy, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | France | Fouls committed | Italy | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Rabiot | 13 | P. Esposito | 14 |
| 2 | M. Koné | 11 | A. Bastoni | 11 |
| 3 | D. Upamecano | 8 | N. Barella | 10 |
| 4 | K. Mbappé | 7 | M. Locatelli | 7 |
| 5 | L. Digne | 7 | G. Raspadori | 6 |
| # | France | Shots | Italy | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Mbappé | 43 | P. Esposito | 28 |
| 2 | M. Olise | 23 | M. Retegui | 16 |
| 3 | O. Dembélé | 21 | M. Kean | 14 |
| 4 | D. Doué | 20 | S. Tonali | 13 |
| 5 | B. Barcola | 13 | F. Dimarco | 10 |
| # | France | Shots on target | Italy | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Mbappé | 24 | P. Esposito | 17 |
| 2 | D. Doué | 11 | M. Retegui | 8 |
| 3 | O. Dembélé | 11 | M. Kean | 7 |
| 4 | M. Olise | 7 | G. Raspadori | 4 |
| 5 | B. Barcola | 6 | F. Dimarco | 3 |
| # | France | Goals | Italy | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Mbappé | 11 | P. Esposito | 6 |
| 2 | O. Dembélé | 6 | M. Retegui | 3 |
| 3 | B. Barcola | 3 | M. Kean | 3 |
| 4 | D. Doué | 1 | G. Mancini | 2 |
| 5 | M. Olise | 1 | S. Tonali | 1 |
| # | France | Yellow cards | Italy | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Koné | 2 | N. Barella | 3 |
| 2 | M. Olise | 1 | A. Bastoni | 3 |
| 3 | B. Barcola | 1 | G. Donnarumma | 2 |
| 4 | K. Mbappé | 1 | A. Cambiaso | 1 |
| 5 | A. Rabiot | 1 | S. Tonali | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for France vs Italy: Michael Olise 1+ shots on target (100% hit rate at 1.33); Désiré Doué 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.30); Maghnes Akliouche 2+ tackles (80% hit rate at 1.53). Combined odds 2.65 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1 | 29 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0 | 6 of 54 |
| Shots | 15 | 18 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5.5 | 13 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12 | 29 of 54 |
| Tackles | 16.5 | 16 of 54 |
| Passes | 664.5 | 2 of 54 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 21 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2 | 16 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.5 | 35 of 54 |
| Shots | 17.5 | 5 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 5 of 54 |
| Fouls | 16.5 | 6 of 54 |
| Tackles | 14 | 28 of 54 |
| Passes | 543 | 14 of 54 |
| Corners | 3 | 35 of 54 |